Amitabh Tiwari

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Assembly Polls 2023: Exit polls a comedy of errors? Seven reasons why they can go wrong

Assembly Polls 2023: Exit polling is very difficult work. Two notable agencies are differing hugely on exit poll projections for some of the states. Only one of them can be right. From reasons like India’s sheer diversity to shortcomings in sampling and work ethic, exit polling can go wrong for a number of reasons

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Assembly Elections 2023: Enjoy exit polls with popcorn, but wait till Dec 3 for real picture

The strike rate of polling agencies in 2018 left was poor. Except for Rajasthan, where the revolving door tradition makes it easy for pollsters, more agencies were wide off the mark than correct in MP, Telangana and Chhattisgarh. The last two states witnessed landslides, which few agencies got right

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Telangana Elections 2023: Close elections mean GHMC could decide the winner

Telangana Elections 2023: If Congress were to do better in Lower Telangana and BRS in Upper Telangana, then the 28 seats in the Greater Hyderabad region could decide the winner. As luck would have it for Congress, BJP and AIMIM could spoil its chances there

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Rajasthan Elections 2023: Gehlot’s welfare works lacked a big clincher – not enough cash handouts

Gehlot’s welfare sops like his health scheme may have created enrollments but no one becomes a beneficiary from day one. In contrast, DBT schemes like Laadli Behna or PM Kisan Nidhi turn recipients into beneficiaries as soon as the first installment is released and this has a higher and immediate impact 

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Rajasthan Elections 2023: Will the focus on getting caste arithmetic right pay off?

Rajasthan Elections 2023: Both BJP and Congress have gone to great lengths to pander to caste sensitivities in ticket distribution. Quotas on the other hand is a tightrope walk as a sop to one group can alienate another. In the end, the party that weaves the widest caste coalition could pull ahead

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

MP, Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: Amid chorus of ‘Kaante Ki Takkar’ (nailbiting finish), what’s on voter’s minds?

MP, Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: Will it be a vote for change or continuity in the two states? The two neighbours witnessed a spirited contest between BJP and Congress to woo voters, who were spoiled for choice with the competition between the two parties extending to who can offer the more generous freebies

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

MP Elections 2023: Why rebels are giving BJP and Congress the jitters

Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023: Opinion polls have projected a close contest, which could even be a photo finish like 2018. There were 30 seats with a margin less than 3,000 in 2018 and so far BJP and Congress have expelled more than 30 leaders each for ticket-related rebellions

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: It is Bhupesh Baghel versus BJP

Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: The chief minister towers over the state Congress, other party leaders and sitting MLAs in terms of popularity, having taken special care to keep the farming community happy. But given how victory margins have been slim until 2013 and the benefit of anti-incumbency is with BJP this time, this is a contest that can go either way

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

MP Elections 2023: For those looking to vote caste, BJP-Congress weave near similar tapestries

Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023: Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023: Their politics may be hugely divergent, but both BJP and Congress are no different when it comes to caste arithmetic and outreach to various caste groups

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Rajasthan Elections 2023: Five regions in the state but Marwar and Dhundhar with 60% of seats matter most

Rajasthan elections 2023: In 2018, Congress made big gains in these two regions. 50 of the 78 seats it added in 2018 from its meagre 2013 tally of 21 came from the Marwar and Dhundhar belts, which together account for 119 seats. But unlike Mewar and Harouti regions which stayed with BJP even when it lost in 2018, the other three: Marwar, Dhundhar and Shekhawati have a tendency to flip. So Congress has a tough road ahead

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Madhya Pradesh Polls 2023: If 2018 repeats, BJP and Congress are fighting a six-in-one election

Madhya Pradesh Polls 2023: Madhya Pradesh has six geographical regions – Baghelkhand, Bhopal, Chambal, Mahakaushal, Malwa and Nimar – each having different dynamics in terms of issues, caste break-up, popular demands, and party leadership. Each region voted differently in the closely fought 2018 polls, a scenario that opinion polls indicate will repeat this time too

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

MP Elections 2023: It’s a close contest because Congress is weak in too many seats

Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023: There are 74 seats in Madhya Pradesh that Congress hasn’t won in the last three assembly elections, while the corresponding number of BJP is only 11. The weak organisation in these 74 seats burdens Congress with having to win the remaining 156 seats at an unrealistically high strike rate

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023: A primer on the state’s politics and the dynamics currently at play

Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023: India’s second biggest state by area (and fifth largest by population) is witnessing a keen contest between BJP and Congress. BJP is at a disadvantage, having to account for the years it has been in office. But Congress has a narrower social base and a weaker organisation, making it more difficult for the party to bat on the front foot

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Rajasthan Elections 2023: Will Congress’s 'Kaam kiya dil se' or BJP’s 'Nahi sahega Rajasthan' carry the day?

Rajasthan Elections 2023: There’s the strong Rajasthan tendency to vote out incumbents, there’s Marwar giving no hints which way it will swing, there’s Ashok Gehlot deploying lessons from states which bucked the alternating government trend, and there are issues like unemployment, law and order, women’s safety and communalism where Gehlot’s record is weak

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Assembly Elections 2023: Ten big (and common) themes across the poll-bound states

Politics is an immensely difficult vocation to pursue and this is intensified by competitiveness and complexities of India’s electoral politics. But we found that governments across the poll-bound states that best negotiate these ten aspects of the coming elections may finish first past the post

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

State Elections 2023: Its political outcomes will impact the economy and markets

While the state poll outcomes of 2018, 2013, 2008 and 2003 had limited impact on the markets or the economy, this time could be different. As the stakes go up and parties make big welfare guarantees this will come at the cost of infrastructure spending, which will have repercussions on markets and the economy

INDIA

Road To 2024: 'Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq' caste census demand fraught with many contradictions 

The opposition is hoping to fire up the umbrella OBC group while ignoring the fissures and strains it can set off. For instance, why does Bengal have a non-OBC CM and why are non-dominant OBCs underrepresented in the Bihar cabinet? 

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Madhya Pradesh: Seven elements of the BJP strategy to field MPs and Union ministers

The BJP decision has put the fielded leaders in quite a spot to say the least. Not only do they have to win the assembly segment in their Lok Sabha constituency and prove their popularity, they are expected to do the heavy lifting across the region they hail from, amid rampant factionalism

BUSINESS

After showcasing vote power through massive turnouts, women closer to bridging representation gap

Women’s Reservation Bill: Since 2019, women have been recognised as the most powerful voting segment through high turnouts. This is leading to more generous government schemes and women-centric poll promises. Now with assured 33 percent representation in Parliament and assemblies, greater political power comes calling

POLITICS

Road To 2024: Both BJP and Opposition want a Bharat versus India contest of their choosing

BJP is trying to portray the I.N.D.I.A bloc as apathetic to the concerns of “Bharat” by highlighting its name, dynastic rule and corruption allegations, while the opposition is trying to strike a chord with “Bharat” citing price rise, joblessness and crony capitalism

BUSINESS

Road to 2024: Does a high or low GDP growth rate affect election outcomes?

In 12 elections since 1971, voters punished all the six governments which recorded lesser GDP growth compared to the previous election cycle. They also rewarded four out of six governments which performed better than the previous governments. This is a pretty good correlation but is the link between economy and poll outcomes weakening of late?

BUSINESS

Road to 2024: Is Rahul's oratory a weak point for the Opposition?

Rahul Gandhi’s speech in the no-confidence motion that failed to focus on Manipur and meandered into his BJY encounters reveals a big problem for the INDIA alliance. It’s most recognisable face, who has done the heavy lifting in rallies, cannot hope to counter PM Modi unless his abilities in the oratory department improve

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Will these focus areas in state budgets do the trick for four incumbent governments?

State budgets in an election year are a good place to spot quite early the focus areas and electoral strategy of incumbent governments. The Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Telangana budgets are revealing in how the chief ministers of the respective states have positioned their pet welfare projects with an eye on polls