Will these focus areas in state budgets do the trick for four incumbent governments?

The Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Telangana budgets show how the chief ministers have positioned their pet welfare projects with an eye on polls.

The process of budgeting in India is intertwined with politics and electioneering. Budgets in India have historically included announcements for specific voter groups. To use a borrowed phrase, an annual Budget, “outlines the ruling party’s fiscal planning, economic priorities and political game plan for the year ahead”.

For political parties in India, the Budget is not only an economic but also a socioeconomic tool. Political business cycle theories postulate that opportunistic incumbent political parties attempt to manipulate policy instruments prior to elections in order to increase the probability of being reelected.

For this reason, budgets shed light on the focus voting segments and electoral strategies. Four big states are going to polls at the end of the year - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Together, they also account for 82 Lok Sabha seats (15 percent of Lok Sabha strength).

Rajasthan government’s spending as a proportion of total expenditure on health, education and energy sectors is higher than the all-India average. Ashok Gehlot has announced an increase in free medical cover under the Chiranjeevi yojana from Rs 10 lakh to Rs 25 lakh per family covering 1.35 crore beneficiaries.

The offer of subsidised gas cylinders at Rs 500 is another big gambit. Taking a leaf out of AAP’s Delhi model, Gehlot has announced free electricity up to 100 units and waiving of fixed charges in electricity bills up to 200 units.

The government’s provision of free education from 1st to 12th class in private schools under RTE for girl students and the implementation of a transport voucher scheme for students are big bang education reforms, by any measure.

Incidentally, Gehlot’s expenditure on agriculture is lower than all India average and no specific/new schemes have been launched for the farmers.

In Madhya Pradesh, everyone’s “mama” Shivraj Singh Chouhan is banking on farmers, youth and the poor to bail him out. The MP government pays Rs 6,000 to every farmer on top of the Rs 6,000 PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi from the central government.

For youth his government has launched an “earn while you learn scheme” besides laptops and scooties for meritorious students.  The government has also launched Saral Bijli Bill Maafi Yojana to waive power bills of 80 lakh poor households (Rs 1,800 crore) to counter the 100 units free power guarantee of the Congress party.

Incidentally, the expenditure on rural / urban development and health sector in MP in the election year is slated to be lower than the all-India average.

Chhattisgarh, which is often called the “rice bowl of India”, due to thousands of varieties of paddy produced, is spending almost 3x of the national average on agriculture. The state pays Rs 660 per quintal bonus over and above the MSP of rice to 2.5 million farmers.

The Bhupesh Baghel government has recently announced an ambitious rural housing project Gramin Awas Nyay Yojana, which will be funded by the State and is meant to ease the process of receiving grants for eligible beneficiaries.

It has also promised a monthly allowance of Rs 2,500 to educated unemployed youth. The highest allocation in the Rs 1,21,500 crore budget has gone to education at 16.1 percent. The state has also launched free treatment and diagnostics facilities in all government-run health facilities for its residents.

The Telangana government's clear focus is on farmers, providing cheaper electricity to the poor, and welfare of SC/STs and minorities. KCR has also increased allocation to the Rythu Bandhu Scheme which, now at Rs 15,075 crore, provides annual income support of Rs 10,000 per acre to more than 70 lakh farmers.

The state has a free power scheme for farmers and SC/ST families up to 50 units and for small businesses up to 250 units. Spending on health and education is lower than national average indicating those facilities already in place are better than in Hindi speaking states.

Telangana has also allocated Rs 33,000 crore plus towards welfare of downtrodden, which is a staggering 34 percent higher than the previous year. The state also provides a one time capital assistance under the Dalit Bandhu scheme of Rs 10 lakh per SC family as a 100 percent grant/subsidy to establish a suitable income generating venture.

To sum up, state budgets project sectoral funding priorities which link to  catchy schemes. It does give an undue advantage to governments in power, but these need not be a sureshot recipe for victory in the polls. For, there is usually a lag between fund allocation and implementation and even bigger questions about the efficacy of government funding.