Telangana Elections 2023: Close elections mean GHMC could decide the winner

Telangana Elections 2023: There’s a three elections-in-one election battle in Telangana, which will go down the wire.

The Telangana battle has become tighter as D-day approaches. Two term Chief Minister KCR is facing the heat from a resurgent Congress which sniffs a chance on the back of high local level anti-incumbency and corruption allegations amidst fatigue setting in especially amongst the youth.

A latest pre-poll survey by SouthPost-People Pulse shows Congress ahead by four percentage points. The last round of opinion polls done by C-Voter had put BRS ahead by two percentage points. All this points to a dead heat battle, a seat by seat contest, which is theoretically difficult for any incumbent. Will KCR pay the price for re-nominating most of his MLAs, or will Revanth Reddy’s TDP antecedents prove costly for Congress?

For more click on Telangana Elections 2023 Live

Three Distinctly Different Zones

With 17 Lok Sabha and 119 Vidhan Sabha seats, the state can be divided into three zones, which have their unique characteristics. Regional dynamics at play could decide the course of these elections.

The state can be divided into three zones for electoral analysis - Upper Telangana (49), Lower Telangana (42) and Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (28). Upper Telangana essentially comprises the North and West parts sharing a border with Maharashtra on the top and Karnataka on the left. Lower Telangana includes East and South Telangana sharing a border with Andhra and Chhattisgarh. The GHMC is the central part housing the capital of Hyderabad.

In Upper Telangana, agriculture dominates the economic landscape. In 10 of the 49 seats, the victory margin in 2018 was less than 5 percent. Beedi rolling, a household industry, contributes significantly to economic activity among women in Nizamabad. The National Turmeric Board recently announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has injected a new dimension into the political discourse.

Telangana, being the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the country, has seen this issue take centrestage, at least in this region. Half of the SC reserved seats are in this zone (10/19) where BRS has a good hold.

In Lower Telangana, in Nalgonda though fluorosis has been eradicated by the efforts of the BRS government, compensation and livelihood for the victims are issues. Lower Telangana is the ST belt of the state with nine of 12 reserved seats in this zone. Congress won half of the ST reserved seats in 2018. Pattas for the podu lands is a big issue for the tribals in this zone. In the semi-urban zone of Mahabubabad, civic issues remain a key concern. BRS has solved to a large extent the drinking water, irrigation water and power shortage issues of this zone.

In GHMC the issues are around lack of proper roads, sanitation/sewage, proper drinking water and other facilities. Here the minority population is 30 percent, more than double the state average due to which polarisation has become a big election issue. BJP finished runner-up in GHMC municipal polls in 2020, and sharp exchanges between BJP and Owaisi has heated up the poll atmosphere here.

Yogi Adityanath and Himanta Biswa Sarma have been campaigning in the last few days with the Assam CM claiming Hyderabad will be renamed Bhagyanagar within 30 minutes of BJP coming to power in Telangana.

Urbanisation - A Double Edged Sword

Telangana has an urban population of around 48 percent which is higher than the national average of 35 percent living in cities and towns. 41 seats are in urban while 78 are in rural areas. Of the 41, urban seats, 28 are in GHMC. BJP and AIMIM have won all their seats in the last two polls from urban areas.

Congress strike rate in urban areas is poor (7 percent) while BRS enjoys almost similar support in both urban and rural areas (70 percent). The visible development in and around Hyderabad, growth of the IT sector, and a high per capita income have added to BRS clout in urban areas.

Under KCR’s rule, BRS appeals to the aspirations of people in Telangana’s urban areas. He has developed a constituency of ‘neo-middle class’ like Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has attracted voters from all caste blocks. This ‘neo middle-class’ wants jobs, better infrastructure, good roads and flyovers, good lifestyle, decent salaries, among other things.

However, a high unemployment rate, has led to disillusionment among youth and the perception that the BRS has failed to fill up vacant government jobs right through its two tenures is gaining ground. With 23 percent, Hyderabad has the second largest population of urban poor in cities of India. Many colonies lack proper roads, sanitation, drinking water and other facilities which slum residents have been complaining of.

In the urban areas, BRS is also heavily dependent upon the AIMIM and the BJP to split the opposition vote. If Congress party’s B-Team barb and its minority appeasement policies work then this could create issues for KCR and BRS.

Congress Stronger in Lower, TRS in Upper Telangana

BRS has been sweeping Upper Telangana in the last two elections winning 80 percent-plus of the seats. While BRS has consolidated its position in Lower Telangana as well in 2018 vis-a-vis 2014 at the expense of Andhra-based parties, Congress wins bulk of its seats from this zone because of it sharing borders with Andhra where it was relatively strong in united Andhra. The party has high hopes from this zone as it is the ST belt where it is gaining traction.

GHMC is the clincher in many ways. Unfortunately for Congress, the spoilers/vote cutters AIMIM and BJP are strongest in this zone. AIMIM wins all of its seats from here and it openly backs the BRS. BJP got one-third of its votes in 2018 from GHMC. That in a way pushed INC to third place in this region (and out of contention), with INC winning just 5 out of 28 seats in the last two polls.

To sum up, there’s a three elections-in-one election battle in Telangana, which will go down the wire. Congress hopes to make gains in the Upper region as the contest becomes increasingly bipolar due to weakening of the BJP, and Lower region due to its guarantees and traction amongst minorities, SC-ST and BCs.

AIMIM and BJP appear to be spoiling its chances in GHMC, without which victory could still elude the Congress. The party needs to crack the GHMC code to win these elections.