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Dec 08, 2017 11:01 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Gujarat Elections: Opinion polls predict a tough fight between Cong vs BJP

Various opinion polls conducted by different TV channels have projected BJP's win in Gujarat election with Congress giving the saffron party a solid competition and eating into its vote share in the state.

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Various opinion polls conducted by different TV channels have projected BJP's win in Gujarat elections. However, these polls also say that Congress won't go down without a fight as India's oldest party will give the saffron party some solid competition, in the process, eating into its vote share in the state.

According to the latest opinion poll carried out by ABP News in collaboration with CSDS, the ruling BJP will probably get 91-99 seats while the Congress, making inroads in the BJP-stronghold state, will bag between 78-86 seats of the 182-member Assembly.

The poll also concluded that the mixed community voter-base in North and South Gujarat are on Congress's side while Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP has retained public support in Central Gujarat and Saurashtra region.

Although the saffron party is likely to lose its vote share significantly, it is still expected to beat Congress in Central Gujarat and especially Patidar stronghold Saurashtra.

Infographic (2)

The ABP News-CSDS poll also predicts a tie in terms of vote-share between the two parties who are at each other's throat currently.

Gujarat will vote in two phases on December 9 and 14 and the counting of votes will take place on December 18.

However, the perk for Congress is that, under Rahul Gandhi's leadership it has been able to give close competition to BJP compared to the opinion poll results from the same agencies earlier this year.

The ABP News poll in August predicted that the BJP would get between 144-152 seats while the Congress will only get 26-32 seats.

Poll Of Polls

On the other hand, an opinion poll carried out this month by Times Now-VMR gives the crown to BJP, but shows that the party cannot cross the 150-seat mark it has set for itself.

As per the poll, BJP is likely to win 111 seats, down by 4 from 2012; Congress is expected to finish second by adding seven more seats to its score of 61 in the last Assembly elections. Other parties are projected to gain only three seats.

The Times Now-VMR survey also predicts that the BJP will get 45 percent of votes and the Congress 40 percent.

When asked about the election, Congress spokesperson Brijesh Kalappa told Moneycontrol ,“We can only say that we have invested a lot of energy and effort into it. If we are not able to succeed it is going to be really sad. But we are not going to stop putting effort. And Rahul ji has put in a lot of effort."

In the Sahara-CNX's pre-poll survey, BJP has been given an easier win with 128 seats in its bag. As per the survey, the saffron party will get 50 percent vote share while the Congress is likely to get 41 percent.

The TV9-CVoter poll projects that the BJP will have a tough time winning and is likely to lose six seats while Congress may bag 12 more seats compared to the last Assembly election and bring its share up to  73 seats.

The opinion poll gave 109 seats to BJP, 73 to Congress and zero to others.

It also forecast that the BJP will get 47 percent of the votes while Congress will clinch 42 percent of the total vote share.

According to the TV9 poll, BJP will win in Central Gujarat with 36 seats while Congress is likely to get 27 seats. In North Gujarat Congress is likely to lead with 19 seats with 13 left for BJP.

In BJP stronghold Saurashtra, the party is expected to win by grabbing 43 seats; Congress will get 11 seats despite a section of the Patidar support.

The Congress is expected to have made some inroads with anti-incumbency wave in the state and effects of the Patidar quota stir, which went against BJP. Congress also has the support of Patidar leader Hardik Patel and Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani while OBC leader Alpesh Thakor have gone into an alliance with the party.

On the question of how much impact the Patidar quota issue will have on BJP’s support, 42.1 percent people said it would have a major effect, 26.1 percent people thought it would impact BJP’s support only moderately while 2.1 percent thought the issue would bear no impact at all.

While ABP News cited demonetisation and such economic woes as factors contributing to an anti-BJP sentiment in the state, Tv9 surveyed about the same.

To Tv9-CVoter's poll question if Demonetisation was a correct decision, 49.9 percent of the participants answered 'No'.  However, for a significant 42.6 percent people, note-ban was a 'correct decision'.
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