Why Trump blocked $400 million in Taiwan military aid and what it means for US-China ties

US President Donald Trump. (File photo)

US President Donald Trump declined to approve more than $400 million in military aid to Taiwan this summer, marking a departure from recent US policy. The aid package, which included advanced munitions and autonomous drones, was designed to bolster Taiwan’s defences against China’s growing military pressure. While the decision is not final, it signals a pause in direct support at a time when China’s People’s Liberation Army is intensifying its drills around the island, the Washington Post reported.

Trade negotiations with Beijing in the background

The move comes as Trump seeks to negotiate a broader trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is even considering a bilateral summit later this year. By holding back on the Taiwan aid, Trump appears to be making room for diplomatic manoeuvring with Beijing. His administration has already eased restrictions on semiconductor exports and dialled back enforcement of TikTok bans, steps that have unsettled some Republicans who favour a tougher line on China.

Concerns over Taiwan’s security

Military experts warn that the aid delay could embolden Beijing. Xi has reportedly directed China’s forces to be capable of seizing Taiwan by 2027, though US officials emphasize this is a planning target, not a set deadline. Critics argue that withholding aid now undermines deterrence. “This would be exactly the wrong time for the US to take the foot off the gas pedal,” said Dan Blumenthal, a former Pentagon official.

A more transactional approach to alliances

Trump’s reluctance to send military aid without payment is consistent with his broader foreign policy approach. In Ukraine, he has pressed European allies to fund weapons for Kyiv instead of providing US security assistance directly. With Taiwan, the White House view is that the island has a strong economy and should buy its own weapons. This approach differs sharply from the Biden administration, which used Presidential Drawdown Authority to send more than $2 billion in security aid to Taiwan during its tenure.

Taiwan prepares to pay for arms

Taiwan’s government has already signalled it is willing to shoulder the burden. In recent defence talks with US officials in Anchorage, Taipei agreed to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of asymmetric weapons, including drones, coastal defence missiles, and surveillance sensors. A supplemental defence bill is being debated in Taiwan’s legislature to finance the package. Still, even once orders are placed, delivery timelines could stretch for years, leaving gaps in the island’s defences in the short term.

Conflicting signals from Washington

Trump has sent mixed messages about Taiwan since returning to office. He launched a trade war with Beijing earlier this year while simultaneously accusing Taipei of undermining the US semiconductor industry. Meetings between senior US and Taiwanese defence officials were cancelled, and Taiwan’s president was discouraged from visiting American cities. Yet Trump has repeatedly insisted China will not invade Taiwan during his time in office, underscoring his confidence in deterrence.

Looking ahead to a Trump-Xi summit

The decision on the $400 million aid package may ultimately hinge on Trump’s diplomatic strategy. Senior administration officials have held multiple calls with Chinese counterparts in recent weeks, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth assuring Beijing that the US is not seeking conflict or regime change. A Trump-Xi summit, if it materializes, could reshape the debate over Taiwan’s security. For now, Taipei is left balancing promises of future US arms sales against the immediate risks posed by China’s military pressure.