Vietnam abandons two-child policy as birth rates decline below replacement level

Vietnam abandons two-child policy as birth rates decline below replacement level

Vietnam has formally ended its decades-long two-child policy, a step aimed at halting a sharp drop in the nation's fertility rate that is causing concern about its economic and demographic well-being. The policy change, passed by the National Assembly this week, eliminates the final official obstacles to big families — such as penalties for Communist Party members who until recently risked losing bonuses or even jobs for having three or more children, the New York Times reported.

The decision comes amid mounting concern over Vietnam’s birthrate, which dropped to a record low of 1.91 children per woman last year — well below the replacement level of 2.1. It marks the third consecutive year that fertility rates have slipped, and mirrors a broader regional trend seen in countries such as China, South Korea, and Japan, where fewer births have sparked fears of a future labour shortage and surging elderly populations.

From population control to baby bonuses

Vietnam initially imposed birth limits in 1988, driven by alarm over high population growth. But the government has now switched, officially encouraging bigger families and making payments in some regions to spur more births. In Ho Chi Minh City, where the fertility rate fell last year to a paltry 1.39, city officials instituted a cash reward of 3 million dong (approximately $120) for women who give birth to two children by the time they are 35 years old.

Southern provinces have since emulated the same baby bonuses and public campaigns, such as dating programs and street billboards encouraging couples to have more children.

The UN Population Fund has cautioned Vietnam is already in its "ageing" phase and can become an "aged" society within two decades — the transition that took much longer to occur in France or the US The working-age population today remains strong, yet authorities worry the window of demographic benefit is closing very quickly.

Costs and cultural change outpace policy

Even after the policy change, most Vietnamese are doubtful. Responses to the Ministry of Health's official Facebook page celebrating the removal of the two-child cap are full of anxiety over rising living expenses and unaffordable child care. "Why give birth and suffer?" wrote one user, echoing sentiment from most city-based families facing economic stress and professional expectations.

Nguyen Thi Tuyet Lan, 35, a shop owner in Hanoi with one daughter, said she supports the change but won’t be expanding her family. “I want to focus my love and money to invest into my daughter’s education and her future,” she said. Sending her daughter to private school and extracurricular classes already consumes a large portion of the family’s income.

Lan supplemented that her experience being raised in a household with three siblings made her yearn to provide her own child with a different kind of life. "It was hard," she said. "I don't want to repeat that."

No quick fix to a deeper problem

Vietnam's push to boost birthrates follows a pattern in other Asian countries, but other efforts have had disappointing results. South Korea provides some of the most generous subsidies for raising children in the world and still maintains the world's lowest rate of fertility.

Vietnamese leaders seem to understand that legal reforms and money bonuses alone will not ignite a baby boom. For most young couples, childbearing choices are influenced not by national policy but by practical realities such as housing, education, and job-and-family balance.

With more than 100 million people now, Vietnam stands at a crossroads: still enjoying the benefits of a large working-age population, but already confronting the possibility of long-term demographic decline. Whether this policy change is enough — or arrives soon enough — to matter is unclear.