US-Iran nuclear talks begin under cloud of mistrust and tight deadlines

Combo of pictures show US President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The United States and Iran are set to begin talks in Oman on Saturday, President Trump confirmed, but both sides approach the table with deep mistrust and maximalist demands that could derail negotiations before they start, the New York Times reported.

Trump, while recently threatening Iran with unprecedented bombing, has also emphasized his preference for a diplomatic solution, a message welcomed by regional Arab powers wary of another conflict. His demands, however—an end to uranium enrichment, surrender of enriched stockpiles, and dismantling of nuclear facilities—are likely to be rejected by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Limited time and mounting pressure

European diplomats warn that the window for diplomacy is narrow. By late July, the UK, France, and Germany must decide whether to begin reimposing U.N. sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. That option disappears after October 18, reducing leverage and possibly closing the door on negotiations.

Iran, already under heavy U.S. and U.N. sanctions, could face economic collapse if more are added. Tehran has threatened to leave the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty entirely if further penalties are imposed, raising the spectre of a military response from Israel or the U.S.

High-level but cautious talks

The weekend talks are expected to feature Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff. Whether discussions are "direct" or "indirect" is less important than whether either side is truly willing to compromise.

Trump, known for starting with extreme demands, may be willing to settle for a deal that permanently restricts Iran's nuclear advancement in exchange for sanctions relief. But Iran will likely require strong guarantees that a future U.S. administration will not abandon the agreement again.

Strategic concerns and looming threats

The U.S. has moved additional military assets to the region, including B-2 bombers and a second aircraft carrier. A bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, Iran's allies, signals Washington's readiness to escalate. Meanwhile, Israel continues its campaign against Iran's regional proxies and missile capabilities.

Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is already sufficient to build multiple bombs, and the International Atomic Energy Agency says monitoring gaps have blinded inspectors to key developments.

Europe’s role and urgency

European nations remain committed to the 2015 nuclear deal but may soon run out of time and leverage. Russia, a key Iranian ally, takes over the presidency of the U.N. Security Council in October, potentially shielding Iran from further sanctions.

Iran is holding parallel talks with Russia and China this week in Moscow, reinforcing its strategy of alternative alliances.

Outlook: diplomacy under duress

Analysts see a high-stakes diplomatic test. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House called it a "fork in the road," with diplomacy and war as diverging paths. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute suggested success may hinge on whether Trump seeks total dismantlement or simply a verifiable halt to Iran's bomb-making capacity.

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group warned against overconfidence. "Iran is weakened, but not desperate," he said, noting that internal reforms and efforts to defuse domestic unrest suggest Tehran is preparing for multiple scenarios, including war.

The next few weeks could determine whether the region sees a new deal or descends into a wider conflict.