Trump’s high-stakes Asian tour: Can he calm global trade tensions?

Trump’s high-stakes Asian gamble

President Donald Trump is expected to embark on a high-stakes trip to Asia at the end of the week, a journey that could shape the future of the global economy. The stakes are enormous: at the heart of the visit lies a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, a diplomatic test that could either ease simmering trade tensions or send fresh tremors through global markets.

A gamble on global diplomacy

Trump is betting that his characteristic mix of improvisation and bravado will yield results. Since returning to the White House in January, his foreign policy record has been a patchwork of breakthroughs and setbacks. While Hamas released some hostages to Israel, the ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile. The trade war with China has surged and receded in unpredictable waves, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues despite Trump’s repeated claims of back-channel diplomacy.

The president’s aides have remained tight-lipped about the itinerary, fuelling speculation about his objectives. On Monday, Trump said he plans to visit Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea — though the White House has not confirmed specific dates or meetings. “I have a very good relationship with President Xi of China,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday. Offering an olive branch, he said he was prepared to lower tariffs, but “they have to give us some things too,” including increased purchases of American soybeans, curbs on fentanyl precursor chemicals, and the lifting of restrictions on rare earth minerals vital for high-tech manufacturing.

By Monday, Trump’s optimism had turned to full-throated confidence: “I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China,” he declared. “It’s going to be fantastic for the entire world.”

First Asian tour of his second term

This marks Trump’s first visit to Asia since returning to power — and the trip comes with a degree of ambiguity even by his standards. “The whole trip has seemed so uncertain from the beginning,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank.

While Trump has hosted several Asian leaders in Washington, he has yet to re-establish the kind of rapport he once had in the region. Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the president, said only that Trump “will participate in meetings and events in Asia that will result in many great deals for our country.” Her brief statement ended with the typically Trumpian flourish: “Stay tuned!”

Trump’s “America First” approach has relied heavily on tariffs to force trading partners to the negotiating table. His push to reconfigure what he calls “unfair trade practices” has unsettled nations that depend on the United States as their largest export market. Beijing’s recent threats of new export restrictions and Trump’s counterthreats of punitive tariffs have only heightened anxieties about what lies ahead.

“There will be some appreciation for the fact that he’s there, but I don’t think it will go far enough to quell the doubts that are pervasive in the region,” Glaser said.

A shrinking foreign policy team

Unlike his first term, Trump now operates with a much leaner foreign policy apparatus. Many veteran diplomats have departed, and the National Security Council has been stripped back to a handful of trusted loyalists.

“There’s not very many White House staff to do this kind of work,” said Rush Doshi, who previously worked on China policy under President Joe Biden. “All of this puts us in uncharted waters.”

Michael Green, who served on President George W. Bush’s National Security Council and now leads the United States Studies Centre in Sydney, said Trump’s strategy for Asia remains unclear. “Everyone is waiting to see where he’s going to come down on all of this,” he said.

Still, others insist Trump’s tough-love approach is yielding results. Anthony Kim, a research fellow in international economic affairs at the Heritage Foundation, said that Japan and South Korea are eager to engage. “The message from them has been ‘let’s sit down, talk about relevant details to make a deal,’” Kim said.

Malaysia: A diplomatic test

Trump’s first stop will be Malaysia, which is hosting this year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit — an event he attended only once in his first term. The summit could provide an opportunity for Trump to showcase his peacemaking credentials, which he has made a cornerstone of his foreign policy narrative.

Regional tensions remain high. Thailand and Cambodia clashed along their disputed border earlier this year until Trump threatened to suspend trade deals with both countries unless they halted the violence. “They were willing to come together and talk to avoid more economic pain,” said Ja Ian Chong, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.

Malaysia’s foreign minister said Trump “looks forward” to signing an expanded ceasefire agreement during the summit, a move likely designed to reinforce his image as a global dealmaker ahead of a fraught election season at home.

Japan: Rebuilding a crucial partnership

Trump’s next destination will be Japan, where he hopes to deepen economic ties. Washington and Tokyo reached a trade agreement earlier this year, which included $550 billion in Japanese investments in U.S. infrastructure and technology projects.

Japan itself is entering a period of change. Sanae Takaichi was elected the country’s first female prime minister on Tuesday. A protégé of the late Shinzo Abe — a close Trump ally — Takaichi is seen as a potential bridge to renewed cooperation.

“Working with Trump and keeping him committed to U.S. alliances requires a level of interaction and trust that none of the Asian leaders have,” said Green. “But Takaichi has the potential to also play that role.”

South Korea: The climactic meeting

The final leg of Trump’s trip will take him to South Korea, which is hosting this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. It is there, according to administration officials, that Trump expects to sit down with Xi Jinping — a meeting that could define the success or failure of the entire journey.

China recently announced export restrictions on rare earth minerals, prompting Trump to threaten retaliatory tariffs so steep that he admitted they would be “unsustainable.” Doshi, the former Biden adviser, believes the summit could yield one of three outcomes: “deal, no deal, or disaster.”

“The Chinese feel they have President Trump’s number,” Doshi said. “They feel that if they push on this, he’ll fold.”

Trump, however, insists relations have improved. “China has treated us with great respect since I’ve been in office,” he said on Monday. “I could threaten them with many other things, but I want to be good to China.”

Trade tensions with Seoul

In Seoul, Trump faces another delicate balancing act. The two nations are locked in trade negotiations over tariffs that could hurt South Korea’s vital automobile industry. Trump has demanded a $350 billion investment fund, modelled on Japan’s earlier commitment, but South Korea has resisted.

“There’s some momentum to the talks,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now senior vice president at the Asia Society. “But I don’t want to overstate it, because there are some fundamental differences about this fund that need to be sorted out.”

She added that it’s not unusual for trade negotiations to drag on until the last moment, but “this time, there are so many balls in the air.”

As Trump prepares to board Air Force One once again, the global economy — and his own political legacy — may depend on what he brings home from Asia: peace, prosperity, or another round of uncertainty.

(With inputs from AP)