Ramzan Kadyrov’s illness raises questions about Chechnya’s future and Putin’s control

Ramzan Kadyrov

For over two decades, Ramzan Kadyrov has ruled Chechnya with an iron fist on behalf of the Kremlin, crushing dissent and eliminating rivals in exchange for broad autonomy and generous federal subsidies. But now, the 48-year-old leader’s visible decline in health has cast a shadow over Chechnya’s future and raised urgent questions for President Vladimir V. Putin’s regime, the New York Times reported.

Kadyrov’s increasing frailty, evident in state media appearances and long public absences, has been a source of anxiety in Grozny and beyond. His rule, forged through violence, personal loyalty, and Kremlin backing, is uniquely tied to his persona. If he steps down or dies, there is no clear mechanism to ensure continuity — and serious doubt over whether anyone else can maintain his brand of authoritarian control.

Rumours, appearances, and signs of decline

Though Russian authorities have not commented on the speculation, Kadyrov’s absence from daily public life has become conspicuous. A video released by his office in May showed him walking slowly in a hoodie, accompanied by a voiceover expressing disdain for gossip — but stopping short of denying the rumours.

“Every human walks the road of illness and death,” the narrator says in the clip. Chechens, long accustomed to seeing their leader dominate television and social media, now whisper anxiously about what comes next.

Exiled dissidents say his decline is clear. “We see him at public events, how difficult it is for him to speak — no one has any doubts about his illness,” said Tumso Abdurakhmanov, a prominent critic living in exile after surviving an assassination attempt in Sweden.

A teenage heir and Kremlin blessings

In recent years, Kadyrov has begun grooming his children for power. His 17-year-old son, Adam Kadyrov, was recently appointed secretary of Chechnya’s Security Council and a regional interior ministry liaison — a position that normally requires far more experience and maturity.

Adam, who graduated high school last year, received two state medals in 10 days, including one for military service. On Saturday, Kadyrov celebrated his son’s wedding with public congratulations from Putin himself.

Free speech in Chechnya has long been extinguished, but exiled Chechens say the appointments have sparked quiet ridicule. “It’s utterly surreal to see adult men with veritable military distinctions give reports to and grovel in front of a child,” said Abdurakhmanov.

Despite Russian law requiring regional leaders to be at least 30 years old, the Kremlin once helped Ramzan Kadyrov himself rule informally in his 20s. That precedent suggests that, with Putin’s backing, a legal workaround for Adam Kadyrov is not out of the question.

Contenders and palace intrigue

Two other figures with strong Kremlin ties are seen as potential successors. Magomed Daudov, Chechnya’s prime minister, led the region’s notorious anti-gay purge in 2017 and often presides over state functions in Kadyrov’s absence.

Another is Apti Alaudinov, a former top security official who rehabilitated his image by volunteering to fight in Ukraine. Now a frontline commander and frequent guest on Russian state TV, he has gained political capital in Moscow for his war credentials.

So far, neither has commented on succession, but both are seen as viable candidates should Putin choose continuity over dynasty.

A unique place in Putin’s Russia

Kadyrov is not like other regional leaders. He commands a 25,000-strong force trained with Kremlin funds — effectively his own private army. He has enforced Islamic codes that defy Russian secular law, operated independent foreign policy contacts with Gulf monarchies, and run Chechnya as a near-sovereign enclave.

Chechnya was exempt from Russia’s 2022 mobilization order. Though some Chechens were sent to fight in Ukraine, they were largely symbolic participants, earning the moniker “TikTok soldiers” for their stylized videos and limited combat engagement.

Still, despite his autonomy and abuses, the Kremlin has tolerated — even rewarded —Kadyrov’s rule, viewing him as a guarantor of postwar stability in the restive North Caucasus.

Moscow’s money and the price of order

Putin’s bargain with Chechnya has always been financial: generous federal subsidies in exchange for loyalty and quiet. In 2025, Chechnya is receiving nearly $700 million — about 15 times the federal funds allocated to Kursk, a region still reeling from Ukrainian attacks.

The subsidies have allowed Kadyrov to enrich his inner circle and entrench his family in every layer of governance. If that funding continues after his departure, analysts say, Chechnya may remain calm. But if it dries up, unrest could return.

“As long as the federal government is strong and rich enough to bankroll Chechnya, the cash-for-stability arrangement will hold,” said Ekaterina Schulmann, a scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

A region watching and waiting

Inside Chechnya, residents are watching developments with a mix of trepidation and relief. One 27-year-old woman in Grozny said the atmosphere has already changed: fewer public events, less visible propaganda, and fewer threats on state TV.

“People are talking about his illness in a low voice, with a sense of anxiety,” she said. “They mostly feel sorry for him but also fear what will happen when he is gone.”

As the Kremlin considers its next move, one truth remains: no figure in Chechnya has amassed the fear and loyalty that Kadyrov commands. His exit, whether imminent or delayed, could mark the start of a precarious new era in one of Russia’s most volatile regions.