Quad's future: Will the strategic alliance get caught in Trump tariff crossfire and Modi-Xi Tianjin meet?

PM Modi and Xi Jinping

Twin developments -- a New York Times report that US President Donald Trump “no longer has plans” to visit India later this year for the Quad Summit, and preliminary reading of the broad announcements from the bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, raise timely questions on the efficacy of the grouping moving forward.

The preliminary announcements by PM Modi and Xi underline a concerted effort to not only extend the normalisation of ties, but to take it a notch higher. Trump administration's relentless tariff measures, of which India is bearing a big brunt, coupled with announcements from Xi-PM Modi bilateral has added to the growing question about the grouping's future.

The same publication claimed on Saturday, as it detailed how relations between the American leader and Prime Minister Narendra Modi “unraveled” over the last few months.

In the report titled 'The Nobel Prize and a Testy Phone Call: How the Trump-Modi Relationship Unraveled’, the NYT, citing people familiar with Trump’s schedule, said that “After telling Mr Modi that he would travel to India later this year for the Quad summit, Mr Trump no longer has plans to visit in the fall.” There was no official comment from either the US or India on the NYT's claim.

The Quad, short for the Quadrilateral, is a group comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia. The grouping was formed with an aim to maintain security and freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

India is scheduled to host the Quad summit later this year. The Trump administration hosted the Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting in January this year, a day after Trump took the oath of office as President for a second term in the White House.

Growing uncertainty

Uncertainty has grown in the past few months regarding India’s plans to host the summit of the four-nation Quad following sharply deteriorating ties between India and its close strategic partner the US over trade tensions and Indian import of Russian oil. Upset at not being able to achieve a breakthrough to stop the Russia-Ukraine war, President Trump and his Administration have now started targeting India.

China's 'big counter'

China, which considers the grouping a threat to its expansionist policies in the South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean regions, is now leading an unofficial, unnamed group to counter the Quad. The group comprises of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

PM Modi pitches Quad’s practical role in maritime security, disaster relief

Highlighting the Quad’s role as a provider of “practical solutions” in the Indo-Pacific, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi lauded the bloc’s contributions to maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) alongside broader cooperation in technology, health, and connectivity. Speaking to Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun during his visit to Tokyo for the 15th India-Japan Annual Summit, Modi said the grouping has grown into a “force for global good” over the past two decades.

When PM Modi visited the US for Quad

For the last Quad Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a three-day visit to the United States on September 21 and met several global leaders, including the outgoing US President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida.