July-August witness 50% drop in Indian students heading to US colleges: Trump’s visa rules to blame?

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The dream of thousands of Indian students to study in the United States is losing its shine. Fresh immigration data shows a steep decline of nearly 50 percent in arrivals from India to American universities in July and August 2025 compared to last year. Experts say the slide is no coincidence but the outcome of tougher rules under the Trump administration.

From stricter visa scrutiny and suspended interviews to rising fees and tighter H-1B conditions, the hurdles are mounting. With India being the single largest source of international students for the US, this sudden dip threatens not just academic diversity but also the finances of American universities that depend heavily on global enrolments.

Sharp dip in arrivals

The data from the US International Trade Administration reveals that the number of students arriving from India dropped 44.5 per cent in August this year – from 74,825 last year to 41,540. July also witnessed a similar fall of 46.4 per cent. These months usually mark the peak of arrivals for the full semester, so the numbers suggest a looming weak year for American campuses.

Between March and May 2025, the number of visas issued to Indian students also hit its lowest point since the Covid-19 pandemic, representing a 27 percent decline over the same period in 2024.

Why the decline?

The Trump administration has toughened multiple aspects of the student visa process. Interview slots were suspended for weeks this year, leaving applicants stranded. Enhanced background checks, including social media scrutiny, slowed down approvals further.

At the same time, costs have climbed. Visa processing fees have gone up, and students now face stricter H-1B rules if they hope to transition into the American workforce after graduation. Under new guidelines, H-1B selection is tilted toward higher wage levels, which disadvantages younger graduates entering entry-level positions.

OPT and H-1B remain key draws

For years, Optional Practical Training (OPT) and the H-1B visa have been the main attractions that brought Indian students to US universities. OPT allows international graduates to stay back and work, while H-1B gives them a shot at long-term employment.

A survey highlighted by Forbes shows how critical these policies are. Over half of international graduate students said they would not have chosen a US university if OPT was unavailable. Fifty-three percent said they would not have enrolled if H-1B allocations were decided by wage level, while nearly half said they would never have applied if student admission periods were fixed rather than based on program duration.

These findings underline that Indian students view the US not just as a place for education but as a pathway to careers. If work options vanish, the incentive to bear the high costs of an American degree collapses.

Why it matters for US universities

India has become the largest source of foreign students in the United States, accounting for 27 percent of all international enrolments last year. Universities rely on this influx to balance budgets, especially as domestic enrolments plateau. In 2024, Indian enrolments were rising sharply, making this year’s downturn all the more striking.

The STEM OPT extension is especially critical. In 2024, 1,65,524 foreign students were on OPT, with Indians making up almost half. Losing that pipeline would hurt not only universities but also industries that depend on highly trained engineers, scientists, and technology specialists.

The bigger picture

The fall in Indian student numbers is not happening in isolation. Canada, Australia, and the UK are aggressively pitching themselves as alternatives, offering clearer post-study work routes and friendlier visa regimes. For many Indian families, these countries now look safer bets than the uncertainty of the United States.

As Trump continues to frame immigration as a political threat, policies that once made the US the top destination for Indian talent are being eroded. Unless reversed, this decline could fundamentally shift the global education map, with long-term consequences for both American universities and its labour market.