Is Venezuela really flooding the US with drugs? What Trump’s naval buildup means

Is Venezuela really flooding the US with drugs?

The United States has deployed Navy ships and thousands of troops near Venezuelan waters, with President Donald Trump framing the operation as a response to drug smuggling. Earlier this week, he said US forces killed 11 people in a strike on a boat in the southern Caribbean, claiming it was carrying drugs from Venezuela. He even posted a video that he said showed the attack. Venezuela countered that the footage was fabricated with artificial intelligence, deepening tensions between Washington and Caracas, the New York Times reported.

Venezuela’s role as a cocaine transit hub

While Venezuela is not a major cocaine producer, it has become a transit hub for the global trade because of its porous border with Colombia — the world’s largest cocaine supplier — and its long Caribbean coastline. US estimates from 2020 suggested that 200 to 250 metric tonnes of cocaine passed through Venezuela each year, about 10-13 percent of global supply. By comparison, Guatemala alone moved more than 1,400 metric tonnes in 2018. Analysts note that Venezuela’s weak institutions and entrenched corruption make the country attractive for traffickers, with elements of the security forces allegedly facilitating shipments worth billions.

No evidence Venezuela is tied to fentanyl

Despite US officials warning of cocaine laced with fentanyl, experts stress that Venezuela plays virtually no role in the fentanyl trade. Production is concentrated in Mexico, using precursor chemicals imported from China, and most fentanyl smuggling into the United States originates there. Any mixing of fentanyl with cocaine happens either in Mexico or within the US itself, not in South America.

Maduro and the ‘Cartel de los Soles’ charges

The Justice Department has accused President Nicolás Maduro of leading the so-called Cartel de los Soles, a loose network of military and political elites allegedly profiting from cocaine smuggling. In 2020, prosecutors charged him and 14 associates with conspiring to ship cocaine to the US and arming traffickers. Maduro has never faced trial, and experts say the cartel is less a formal organization than a shorthand for Venezuela’s system of corruption and patronage. Former officials who broke with the government have described top leaders allowing or directly participating in the trade, while Maduro himself insists the accusations are politically motivated.

Why the naval buildup may not change much

Despite the military show of force, experts say the deployment is unlikely to disrupt the flow of drugs into the United States. Most cocaine bound for North America moves through the Pacific corridor — from Colombia and Ecuador — not the Caribbean. DEA figures show about 74 percent of shipments in 2019 used Pacific routes, compared with just 24 percent through the Caribbean. Cocaine trafficking networks are also highly adaptive, able to reroute quickly when confronted by enforcement.

A move with political overtones

Analysts argue the naval operation is more about signalling strength than dismantling drug pipelines. Trump has campaigned heavily on tackling crime and drugs, and the strike plays into that narrative. It also speaks to domestic politics: Venezuelan and Cuban communities in Florida, long hostile to Maduro, were angered when the administration allowed Chevron to restart oil operations in Venezuela. The naval buildup allows Trump to project toughness without reversing that energy decision.

Legal implications and future risks

The deployment may also feed into legal arguments. Trump has invoked the Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans without due process, a move rejected by a federal appeals court. If tensions escalate and Venezuela retaliates, the administration could use the naval clash as justification for applying the law. For now, the military presence stands as both a warning and a political message, but experts caution it does little to address the real roots of America’s drug crisis.