Is China secretly arming Iran? Three mystery Chinese planes to Tehran in three days raise alarm

(File Photo) Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with his Russian counterpart at the Kremlin in Moscow on May 8, 2025. (Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / POOL / AFP)

As Israel and Iran trade blows in a dangerous military escalation, an unexpected player may be quietly entering the fray. Over three consecutive days, three Chinese Boeing 747 cargo planes landed in Tehran, sparking speculation that Beijing may be covertly aiding Iran. Are these flights routine, or is China secretly backing Iran with military support?

What happened?

According to flight tracking data and intelligence sources in regional and defence media, three Boeing 747 cargo aircraft originating from China flew into Iran. The first one left on Saturday, a day after Israel attacked Iran. The second one reached the next day, i.e. Sunday, as Iran prepared retaliatory moves, and the third one reached Iran the next day, i.e. Monday.

These planes are not ordinary cargo haulers; they’re the type typically associated with military-grade logistics, capable of transporting missiles, drones, and other heavy equipment. The flights have raised red flags, especially because they occurred during an unfolding military crisis between Iran and Israel.

All three planes followed the same route - west over northern China into Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, before vanishing from radar near Iran. Though listed as bound for Luxembourg, none of the aircraft came close to Europe.

The timing, the aircraft type, and the destination — all suggest these weren’t routine shipments.

Is China helping Iran? The case for caution

China has long maintained strong economic, energy, and military ties with Iran. It buys a large portion of Iran’s oil (despite US sanctions), has sold Iran military and surveillance technology in the past, and sees Tehran as a useful partner in countering Western influence in the Middle East. Reports suggest that Iran sends over 90 per cent of its oil exports to China.

Over 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China, making Beijing’s refining sector heavily reliant on Tehran’s discounted crude. Due to Western sanctions, Iran sells its oil secretly through a “dark fleet” of tankers with transponders turned off. Most of this oil is bought by small “teapot” refineries in China’s Shandong region, drawn by discounts of $2–$11 per barrel since 2022. Payments are made in yuan, forcing Iran to spend heavily on Chinese goods — a setup one Iranian official called “a colonial trap.”

If Israel were to strike Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, it could sever this supply line, causing immediate disruption in China. While Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could replace some of Iran’s output, the short-term shock would be severe. Although Iran’s refineries haven’t been hit yet, Israel’s ongoing airstrikes have already pushed oil prices higher.

Notably, this isn’t the first time China has supported Iran — it has previously supplied thousands of tonnes of ballistic missile materials.

But China is also deeply invested in regional stability, especially in the Gulf, where its energy interests are concentrated. Openly backing Iran in a war against Israel (a U.S. ally) would jeopardise Beijing’s fragile balancing act and risk sanctions or reputational damage.

So, is Beijing really helping Tehran militarily? It’s possible. But if it is, China is doing so very quietly and deniably.

Why would China help Iran?

If the cargo planes did indeed carry weapons or sensitive equipment, several possible motives could explain China’s actions. First, by supporting Iran, China may be aiming to counter US and Israeli influence in the region, strengthening the broader anti-Western bloc while keeping Washington and Tel Aviv distracted. Second, discreetly aiding Tehran could give Beijing diplomatic leverage in future ceasefire or settlement talks, positioning itself as an indispensable power broker. Third, this could be a calculated move to test Western red lines – gauging how far it can back its strategic allies without provoking a significant backlash. Finally, with Iran now a member of BRICS and China pushing for a new multipolar world order, providing arms support might reflect a broader effort to reinforce alignments within the BRICS bloc and challenge the dominance of Western-led alliances.

How has China reacted to the conflict?

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday said China was “deeply worried” about the conflict in West Asia.

“All parties should work to de-escalate the conflict as soon as possible and prevent the situation from worsening further,” he said on the sidelines of a summit in the Kazakh capital of Astana.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Wednesday his country was concerned that the conflict between Israel and Iran "may get out of control", warning that the region could slide into an "abyss".

"Israel's acts of disregarding international law and international rules have caused the situation in the Middle East to suddenly become tense, and China is also deeply concerned that the situation may get out of control," Wang told his Egyptian counterpart in a phone call Wednesday, China's foreign ministry said.

The same day, in a separate call with Oman's foreign minister, Wang said the two countries "cannot sit idly by and let the region slide into an unknown abyss". He said reaching a ceasefire agreement was a "top priority".

On Thursday, Xi called for all parties but "especially Israel" to stop hostilities in a phone call with Russia's Vladimir Putin, Chinese state media reported.

"Parties to the conflict, especially Israel, should cease hostilities as soon as possible to prevent a cyclical escalation and resolutely avoid the spillover of the war," Xi said, according to Xinhua.