Explained: Why Canada's population growth has slumped to almost zero

The key factor behind the slowdown was a sharp decline in non-permanent residents.

Canada’s population reached an estimated 41.65 million on July 1, 2025, marking an increase of just 47,098 people, or 0.1%, over the previous quarter, according to Statistics Canada.

Notably, excluding the pandemic period in 2020, this represents the slowest second-quarter growth since comparable records began in 1946. The modest increase follows years of rapid immigration-driven expansion, when the population grew by over 3% in 2023–24.

The key factor behind the slowdown was a sharp decline in non-permanent residents.

Between April and June, Canada saw a net loss of 58,719 temporary residents, marking the third consecutive quarterly drop. The number of non-permanent residents slumped to 3.02 million, or 7.3% of the population, down from a peak of 7.6% in October 2024.

Study permit holders decreased by 32,025, while work permit holders dropped by 19,637. In contrast, asylum claimants and protected persons increased by 17,901, continuing a 14-quarter streak of growth and reaching a record 497,443, with the largest gains in Ontario and Quebec.

However, despite the slowdown, immigration remained the largest driver of population growth.

Canada admitted 103,507 new permanent residents in the second quarter, accounting for more than 70% of overall growth, in line with the government’s 2025–27 Immigration Levels Plan. Natural increase, births minus deaths, added 13,404 people during the same period.

Moreover, year-on-year growth has also been soft.

From July 2024 to July 2025, the population was up by 389,324 (+0.9%), down sharply from 1.21 million (+3%) the previous year. Much of the slowdown followed government policies introduced in 2024 aimed at limiting temporary migration, including stricter rules on study and work permits. The steepest declines could be seen among international students, reflecting tighter immigration controls.

Population trends varied regionally.

Prince Edward Island led growth at +0.8%, followed by Alberta (+0.4%), while British Columbia recorded a rare decline of 2,154 people. Interprovincial migration also shaped demographics, with Alberta posting a net gain of 6,187 and Ontario a net loss of 6,154 for the 15th consecutive quarter.

In addition, Canada’s population is aging.

The median age rose to 40.6 years from 40.3 a year earlier, and seniors now account for 19.5% of the population. In Newfoundland and Labrador, one in four residents is over 65, giving the province the oldest demographic profile.

Economist Armine Yalnizyan warns, “Canada is on track to have the smallest working-age cohort in decades, fewer people available to work and more older adults requiring care.”

The demographic slowdown has economic implications.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said weaker population growth, coupled with a soft labor market, could weigh on household spending, a key support in an economy that contracted in the previous quarter.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is set to announce new immigration targets on November 1, aiming to balance public concerns with the need for skilled workers to support housing, infrastructure, and long-term economic growth.