2.7% growth or 100% denial? How Pakistan's economic survey tries to spin crisis as comeback

A ragpicker searches for recyclable materials in Rawalpindi on May 17, 2022. (Photo by Farooq NAEEM / AFP)

As Pakistan prepares to unveil its annual budget on Tuesday (June 10), the Shehbaz Sharif-led government, through its finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, on Monday released the country’s economic survey 2024-25.

Traditionally, the economic survey is meant to offer a transparent snapshot of the country’s economic performance. But like much else in Pakistan’s civil-military-dominated system, this year’s survey reads less like a hard-nosed analysis and more like a desperate attempt to whitewash chronic failures.

At the centre of this carefully worded report is a deceptively optimistic 2.7% GDP growth figure — a number that, while better than last year’s negative growth, still paints a grim picture for a country of over 240 million people facing deep structural distress.

Aurangzeb stated that Pakistan’s GDP contracted by 0.2% in 2023, but rebounded to 2.5% in 2024. “For 2025, we have projected a growth of 2.7%,” he said, adding that the country is on a gradual path to recovery and the focus must remain on achieving sustainable growth.

What the survey claims

Finance Minister Aurangzeb claimed that inflation during the outgoing fiscal year stood at 4.6%, which if true, would mark a sharp drop from previous double-digit levels. But on the ground, the story is starkly different – spiralling food prices, record energy costs, and joblessness have been the defining features of Pakistan’s economic reality. The so-called low inflation figure is, at best, a statistical illusion – one that doesn’t reflect the lived experience of ordinary Pakistanis crushed under the weight of a crumbling rupee.

The survey also highlights a policy rate cut, from a suffocating 22% to 11%. While this may look like relief on paper, the truth is that sky-high interest rates were the result of Islamabad's poor economic discipline and endless borrowing to cover fiscal mismanagement. Cutting them now isn’t a victory; it’s damage control.

The finance minister touted a 7% increase in exports and claimed freelancers generated $400 million in earnings, with total IT exports hitting $3.1 billion. However, this modest rise is dwarfed by Pakistan’s chronic reliance on remittances – the country's economic lifeline. Aurangzeb proudly declared that remittances had surged to $38 billion – a $10 billion jump in two years. But what he didn’t say is more revealing: that this inflow is driven not by policy success, but by the desperation of Pakistan’s expatriate population sending more money home as families face economic ruin.

Instead of reforming its tax base or manufacturing capacity, Pakistan remains addicted to the money its diaspora sends, essentially outsourcing economic survival to workers abroad.

Debts and deficits

Pakistan’s current account was shown to be in surplus by $1.9 billion – a figure that might calm creditors but hides the broader truth: this surplus is not the result of a booming economy, but of suppressed imports, currency controls, and deferred payments. Pakistan’s true fiscal health remains dire, with unsustainable debt servicing obligations and a narrow tax base propped up by the IMF.

Even the reported 26% increase in revenue collection doesn’t address the elephant in the room: over 80% of Pakistan's elite - military-run enterprises, large landlords, and politically connected businesses – continue to evade taxes while the poor are suffocated by indirect levies.

A budget meant to please the IMF, not the people

With the federal budget set to be tabled tomorrow, it's already clear that Pakistan's economic direction is being dictated not by public interest but by donor conditionalities. The IMF's fingerprints are all over Pakistan’s fiscal framework, from forced austerity to promises of privatisation.

The question is: will any of this make life easier for the average Pakistani?

Unlikely.

Fuel, food, and utility costs remain unaffordable. Youth unemployment continues to climb. Foreign investors remain wary. And the looming fear of another bailout cycle hovers over every economic conversation.

At its core, Pakistan's economic story remains unchanged: a fragile state living beyond its means, perpetually begging from the IMF, GCC nations, and now even China under CPEC 2.0. The current survey merely recycles old talking points: minor export improvements, remittance dependence, and cosmetic policy tweaks dressed up as reform.