Why the US views China as its biggest geopolitical rival

US President Joe Biden (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping. (File image)

The United States’ decision to identify China as its biggest geopolitical rival reflects the emerging global picture in the wake of the ongoing Sino-US rivalry over establishing economic and technological dominance.

America’s decision to identify China, and not Russia, as its main geostrategic challenge in the middle of the Ukraine war, which has been described as the biggest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, has surprised most observers.

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Yet, US President Joe Biden’s assessment about China is consistent with that of his predecessors, and indicates the challenge posed by Beijing to Washington to maintain its supremacy in the post-Cold War period.

The National Security Strategy announced by President Biden on October 12 said China was the “most consequential geopolitical challenge” for America.

It said the US was in the middle of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order.

But, he added that, “The People’s Republic of China is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it.”

The document noted that China is planning to expand its sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific and become the world’s leading power.

The NSS spoke about the Ukraine war and the other threats posed to the US, while also identifying countries like India, with which America wants to deepen ties.

Russia not seen as a serious threat

The NSS blamed Russia for posing an immediate threat to international peace and stability, saying the US and its allies will continue to support Ukraine militarily and sanction Russia for invading its neighbour.

It said the US will also thwart Moscow’s attempt to use nuclear weapons to achieve its goal in Ukraine.

Despite growing concerns in Europe and in the rest of the western world about the war in Ukraine, the US does not see Russia posing a serious threat to its security.

Since the end of the Cold War, the US has treated Russia as a regional power, not the global player that used to be America’s main rival. This was reflected in US President Barack Obama’s remarks after the 2014 annexation of Crimea that Russia was no more than a ‘regional power’ whose actions in Ukraine were an expression of weakness rather than strength.

The US’ relations with China also underwent a significant change during this period. The engagement between the two sides that began with Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972 had culminated in the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two sides in 1978.

But after the disintegration of the Soviet Union both sides had to rework their relations as the threat from Moscow that brought them together no longer existed.

Simmering tensions with China

However, their bilateral ties went through a rough patch in the following years.

During Bill Clinton’s presidency, Washington and Beijing had come close to a military confrontation over Taiwan in 1996. The US decision to supply weapons to the island came in the wake of an unofficial visit to America by the then president of Taiwan.

When China threatened to fire ballistic missiles at Taiwan, the US sent its aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait, raising concerns about an imminent war.

However, the crisis was resolved through diplomatic negotiations and Washington’s assurance to Beijing that there was no change in its “One China” policy.

Relations between the two sides had improved during Barack Obama’s presidency and his decision to engage China and seek its cooperation on issues related to Climate Change.

But bilateral ties nosedived under Donald Trump, when both sides accused each other of unfair trade practices, sparking a trade war between the two countries. Soon, it expanded to the area of technology and several Chinese companies in the US were banned from carrying out their business.

Under President Joe Biden, who decided to continue with Trump’s policy on China, relations were strained further as the economic and technological war only intensified. Washington’s involvement in Taiwan made the situation worse.

Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have met twice virtually but not in person. There is an opportunity for them to meet face-to-face next month at the G-20 summit in Indonesia. While nothing is clear yet, their direct talks could ease tensions.

India’s most important foreign relationship

However, US relations with India have really flourished over the last two decades. Bill Clinton’s visit to India in 2000, the Obama and Trump visits to Delhi in the following years and the reciprocal visits by Indian prime ministers to Washington have helped consolidate relations.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had strong, cordial relations with both Obama and Trump, and who is maintaining the tempo with Biden, bilateral relations have strengthened further.

The partnership with the US is today considered India’s most important foreign relationship. The two sides have deepened and expanded their cooperation in a vast number of areas from defence and high-tech to trade and investment to education and culture and are looking to expand their partnership to other areas.

India is one of the four members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, with the US, Australia and Japan. The four countries have been working closely to ensure an open, inclusive and free Indo-Pacific to create a peaceful and stable region.

India has so far maintained its strategic independence by being the only Quad member that has not condemned Russia, a close, strategic ally, for its invasion of Ukraine or imposed sanctions on it.

India has also ensured that its two-year military standoff with China at the border does not expand into a wider conflict between the two countries.

But experts have warned India to be prepared to face a more assertive China in its region in the coming days.

Whether India meets that challenge on its own or makes common cause with other countries facing similar problems with China is something that will be keenly watched in the region and beyond.