What Joe Biden-Fumio Kishida summit means for the Indo-Pacific

The US President’s assurance puts to rest a widespread speculation in Japan and elsewhere that America might not be as committed to the Indo-Pacific region because of its engagement with the war in Ukraine. (File image)

The summit between Joe Biden and Fumio Kishida in Washington this weekend formally set the future course of the US-Japanese partnership to deal with the challenge that China poses in the Indo-Pacific region.

Experts said that Friday’s meeting between the US President and the Japanese Prime Minister clearly indicated that the two countries were in lock-step to deal with the emerging scenario.

This was Kishida’s first visit to the US since assuming office as Japan's prime minister in October 2021.

Endorsing Japan’s new defence doctrine last month that diluted many of the country’s post-World War II constraints, Biden said, “We’re modernising our military alliance, building on Japan’s historic increase in defence spending and new Security Strategy.”

Biden said, “Let me be crystal clear: the United States is fully, thoroughly, completely committed to the alliance and, more importantly, to the defence of Japan.”

The US President’s assurance puts to rest a widespread speculation in Japan and elsewhere that America might not be as committed to the Indo-Pacific region because of its engagement with the war in Ukraine.

Biden’s approval of the new defence strategy of Japan also helps Kishida end criticism from detractors who were sceptical of Washington’s support to the significant shift in Tokyo’s security doctrine.

Japan’s new defence policy would allow it to acquire long-range missiles and weapons to build up the country's counter-strike capability to target enemy sites.

The Biden-Kishida summit was preceded by a 2 plus 2 meeting between the foreign and defence ministers of the two countries on Wednesday indicating the strengthening of their close partnership.

The China factor

“China’s foreign policy seeks to reshape the international order to its benefit and to employ China’s growing political, economic, military, and technological power to that end,” the two countries said in a statement after the meeting of the defence and foreign ministers.

“This behaviour is of serious concern to the alliance and the entire international community, and represents the greatest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.” The statement added.

The 2 plus 2 meeting also formally added mention of outer space in the longstanding US-Japan security treaty saying that “attacks to, from and within space” could trigger mutual defence provisions of the treaty.

According to a Japanese media report, Japan is planning to buy 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles by 2027 from the US to build its counter-strike capability.

In a significant shift, Japan has also decided to increase its defence budget to 2 percent of the GDP from the earlier one percent limit for weapons and military platforms.

This will make Japan the third largest spender on defence after the US and China.

While the hike in defence spending has been supported by the people in Japan, there have also been concerns over rising taxes because of it.

Significantly, the decision to hike the defence spending came within weeks of Kishida’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bangkok in November.

In their 45-minute meeting, the two leaders had agreed to build a “constructive and stable” relationship and promote cooperation in environment protection, energy savings and health care and resume bilateral economic dialogue.

The public perception of the US and China in Japan are in sharp contrast. While over 70 percent of Japanese trust America, nearly 85 percent of them see China unfavourably.

The US support

Kishida’s US visit and his summit with the American President comes at a time when the Japanese Prime Minister’s political ratings have plummeted to about 30 percent following a series of scandals involving his cabinet colleagues.

But experts think the enthusiastic support that he got in the past days from the US leadership could increase his diplomatic bona fide and also help raise his domestic stocks.

This could even temper the concerns that were spreading over a possible budget hike.

“It doesn’t hurt that the US-Japan alliance is deeply appreciated by President Biden.

Kishida framed the shift in his defence strategy on the basis of the deteriorating scenario in the Indo-Pacific in view of the rising tension between the US and China over Taiwan, which was enhanced in the wake of the Ukraine war.

The Prime Minister and his close aides argued that if China was to take Taiwan forcibly, it could inevitably draw Japan into the conflict as the US is likely to launch its defence of the island from Japan’s Okinawa where American marines are based.

In that scenario, Japan should have the capability to counter-attack as the Chinese have made their intentions clear that Japan will not be spared if its territory is used by the US to launch its defence of Taiwan.

At their 2 plus 2 meeting, Japan and the US agreed to deploy a more agile and capable US Marine unit in Okinawa. They also agreed to expand the shared use of military facilities and increase bilateral exercises and training, including around Japan’s islands near Taiwan.

Biden and Kishida said in a statement after the summit, “We emphasise that our basic positions on Taiwan remain unchanged, and reiterate the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community.”

Chip technology

But interestingly, though Biden and Kishida agreed to “sharpen our shared edge on economic security, including protection of critical and emerging technologies,” there was no clear indication if Japan would support the US decision to deny China access to technologies for chip-making machinery.
Kishida said Japan would take a decision on the issue “in a responsible and accountable manner” based on economic security considerations.

China is Japan’s second-largest trade partner after the US and their trade volume is over $317 billion.

It is clear that despite serious security concerns, Japan was not willing to take any steps that could jeopardise its strong economic relations with China, especially at a time when the Japanese economy could enter a recession according to economists.

Whether the Sino-Japanese economic ties could stabilise their political ties and lower tension in the region will be clear in the coming days.