Kissinger calls on Beijing to rethink its stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Henry Kissinger, the high priest of realpolitik, said on Monday that China could “recalibrate” its support for Russia on Ukraine to prevent a “wall of opposition” from developing against it in the West as has happened with Russia.

Kissinger, the winner of the 1973 Nobel Peace Prize and a former US secretary of state, felt the change in China’s stand and a gradual move towards the United States could come after the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party due on October 16 in Beijing.

Kissinger played a pivotal role in normalising Sino-American relations and had accompanied Richard Nixon to Beijing in the first-ever American presidential visit to China in 1972. He shared his views on the war in Ukraine at the Asia Society in New York.

According to Kissinger, when Chinese President Xi Jinping entered a “no limits” partnership with Vladimir Putin, he gave a “blank cheque” to his Russian counterpart as he felt the Ukraine invasion would succeed.

However, Xi was disappointed as the invasion fell well short of expectation, which is why Xi “must need to recalibrate”.

Kissinger said the stage has been set for Xi to tilt, “at least modestly”, towards the United States.

Despite his vast knowledge of world politics, Kissinger is also a divisive figure in the world of diplomacy. His remarks have often generated controversy, as he did in May by asking Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to establish peace.

But as the suggestion led to a howl of protests on social media from leaders in Ukraine and elsewhere, he clarified that he had not asked Ukraine to give up territory.

Kissinger emphasised that to end the war, the best dividing line would be the status quo ante—or going back to the position when the war started on February 24. This would mean, he argued, that the aggression has not succeeded.

Kissinger’s remarks on the future of Sino-Russian relations comes when many are debating if China will continue to support Russia even in the face of a string of victories for the Ukraine army glaringly exposing the weakness in the Russian military.

According to Kissinger, a meeting between the Chinese President and his American counterpart Joe Biden could take place on the sidelines of next month’s Group of 20 summit in Indonesia.

Both leaders are expected to attend.

The first signs of China’s unhappiness with the direction of the Ukraine war became apparent at the Xi-Putin meeting during last month’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan.

At the meeting, the Russian president acknowledged that China had concerns about the Ukraine war. Though the concerns were not spelt out, observers said they arose from the war turning out to be a long conflict with an uncertain outcome.

India too, has expressed concerns on the long war and its adverse effect on the supply of energy, food and other essential items throughout the world.

The Ukraine war coincided with the world’s attempt to get back to normalcy in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdowns that most countries were forced to impose to prevent the spread of the deadly virus.

The long disruption in the supply chains due to the Ukraine war has put further strain on the global economy and given rise to widespread inflation and fears of a global recession.

These concerns were reflected in the conversation Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had with Putin, also at the SCO summit sidelines, when Modi told the Russian president that this “is not an era of war”.

For China, the Ukraine war has brought both opportunities and risks.

A prolonged war has allowed China to consolidate its presence in the small islands in the Pacific Ocean—a region that had been dominated by the US and its allies—as the focus of Washington had been on Ukraine.

But a prolonged war has also affected China’s interest in Europe. China’s close ties with Russia have damaged its image in most European nations and jeopardised its access to critical technology that is essential for China’s development.

It has also indefinitely delayed its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative and the infrastructure projects it had invested in. Additionally, it has allowed NATO to consolidate further in Europe.

But as Russia faces crippling sanctions from the West and gets increasingly isolated, its dependency on China has also increased both as an importer and a major investor in Russia, providing Beijing with huge economic opportunities.

However, a weak Russia on the verge of collapse and implosion could also pose serious problems at China’s border. A weakened Russia could also encourage the US to further contain China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region.

China wants the war in Ukraine to end early. But it accuses the US of prolonging the conflict to debilitate Russia and spread its geostrategic reach.

Therefore, if Biden and Xi meet in Indonesia next month, the Ukraine war and its early end are likely to be on top of the agenda of their talks.