'Almost half the carbon injected into the atmosphere by humans has taken place since Sachin Tendulkar made his Test debut for India'

History shows that someone who pollutes a river can do much more harm than a king or a queen. Groups of us are far more significant in our needs and demands than a royal or presidential court, explains Peter Frankopan.

We live in a warming world, one that is heating up much faster than expected. As per a new UN report, our planet is likely to cross a critical threshold for global warming within the next decade, which could have a deep and dangerous impact on human, plant and animal life.

But if author Peter Frankopan is to be believed, the relationship between climate and mankind isn’t new. In his latest book, The Earth Transformed, he takes this argument further with riveting examples of how our history has been affected by the environment. In fact, he adds, the era of the modern man began due to a rise in global temperatures. The author writes, “Agriculture may not have been impossible before the Holocene (around 12,000 years ago), but it suited conditions perfectly after its onset.” It spawned empires, cities, and a growth in human population the Earth had never seen before.

Peter Frankopan (Photo credit: Jonathan Ring)

Over 700 pages, he drives the message of how of our lives are shaped by nature, and why we are bound by the health of the natural world. We spoke to the author about his attempt to forge a new kind of history, what India can learn from the past and lessons for the future.

Climate change is real but not new, as per your book. It’s a take that has, so far, largely been overlooked. What triggered your deep-dive into history to understand it?

As a historian, I suppose my starting point, when trying to understand any problem, is to look at its roots. That was what motivated me when I wrote about the Silk Roads (The Silk Roads: A New History of the World) – and the same is the case with Earth Transformed.

All of us are aware of the problems we face in a warming world, so I have wanted to ask why it is that we are facing such dangers. Those do not just involve climate change, but also biodiversity loss and collapse of ecosystems. I wanted to look at how climate changes of the past have influenced not only human history but that of the natural world; and also at how our species has remodelled this planet for our own needs – for good and bad.

We are living not so much in a golden age of new evidence, but in one of hyper-abundance. How easy or difficult was it to connect the dots for this book?

That is a great question, and one that is quite hard to answer accurately or perhaps even modestly. Pulling together vast amounts of material involves huge amounts of research, as well as thinking and contemplation – and that is all before trying to put ideas in order. So, it is like a million-piece jigsaw puzzle.

Part of me wants to underline that it is incredibly difficult to solve one of those, but also to recognise that I’ve done so successfully. So, it was really, really hard. And yet, I love to take on big challenges, even if they take me 10 years, as this one has done.

So, can we now say that environmental changes have had a far greater impact on history than battles and kings?

It always amazes me how much we think about individuals in the past and the present. And not only that, but that we think about rich and powerful ones. But someone who pollutes a river can do much more harm than a king or a queen. Groups of us are far more significant in our needs and demands than a royal or presidential court.

But we love looking at history like it is a Netflix series – we want plots and intrigues, murders and mysteries, and we want heroes and villains. One reason for that is that it distances ourselves from reality: other people are the ones to blame; other people are the ones whose decisions count; if only our own champions and heroes made decisions. It stops us from looking at communities – and at ourselves. That is crucial when it comes to the natural world.

Can you share, from the book, an example of human resilience being tested and triumphing/failing due to environmental change?

We are remarkable when faced with disaster. There have been times of profound suffering, of loss of lives running into the millions – even tens of millions – and yet here we are, just about hanging on.

The terrible cases of hunger and deaths in famine in Bengal in the 18th and 20th centuries, the Doji Bara of the 1790s, or during the Black Death from the 1340s, or the Justinian plague 700 years earlier were all closely linked to climatic and environmental changes. And despite the catastrophes that followed, there was recovery. That should provide some source of hope.

At the moment, there is a belief that global warming will lead us to our collective doom. But in actuality, can some of us stand to benefit from it, as some civilisations have as per your book?

Yes, clearly everything depends on where climatic and ecological change prove damaging and where they are beneficial. Regions that are already warm are in worse positions than those that are temperate; but much depends on water resources; on the ability to harness science and technology to solve problems; and on financial resources too.

There is not a single lake or river in Saudi Arabia; and typical temperatures are far higher than in India, especially in cities away from the coast, such as Riyadh. But if you can afford to power air-conditioning and have high levels of infrastructure investment (as well as forward planning), then the prospects for one’s population can be mitigated, alleviated or perhaps even solved. Likewise, though, large parts of Russia and Canada, as well as a few select locations in the northern and southern hemisphere will do better in a warmer world. The benefits and costs are not evenly distributed.

The Earth Transformed: An Untold History by Peter Frankopan; Bloomsbury; Rs 850.

But are we exacerbating climate change and its impacts?

For sure, we are exacerbating climate change. Almost half the carbon injected into the atmosphere by humans has taken place since Sachin Tendulkar made his Test debut for India. Rather than slowing down, global fossil fuel expenditure is going up. There have been some important breakthroughs – such as the Montreal protocol about the ozone layer that produced plenty of change. But for now, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that we are hurtling towards the edge of a cliff, at great speed.

Part of the problem is that we can’t seem to work out who is at fault or who can fix it, as we assume it is nothing to do with us. But the scale of the challenge is described by many leading scientists as ‘existential.’ In fact, as one recent report put it, ‘The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms – including humanity – is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp, even for well-informed experts.’

And are we, even now, paying enough attention to climate change or really understanding its full impact?

No. Not one of the G20 countries is within the commitments it gave at Paris in 2015. That tells you something. Then when we look at the floods in Pakistan that displaced 33 million people; at 40C temperatures in the UK; the highest temperature ever recorded in China; terrible drought and then extraordinary flash floods in Australia; or tornadoes that devastate entire towns in the United States, one might think we’ve been unlucky and that ‘these things happen.’

They will happen more and more frequently, in more and more places. That will put strains on production, create economic shocks, produce humanitarian crises – and more. It is probably worth remembering, then, that in most religious traditions, not least Hinduism, ecological balance is closely connected to moral behaviour: those who anger the gods/God are punished environmentally. So, in some ways, the fact that we have created the circumstances for our own tragedies and challenges is something that is very recognisable when one studies history.

It’s reported that India will be one of first countries where heatwaves will break the human survivability index. What can we learn from history?

That is easy: the first and most important lesson of all when faced with a crisis is to look at who, where and how that has been handled well in the past; and likewise, the opposite. History is a never-ending resource that can offer guidance – if you ask the right questions of the past.

The Earth Transformed: An Untold History by Peter Frankopan is published by Bloomsbury. It is priced at Rs 850.