China's new path to greater influence in Asia

Note to readers: Hello world is a program developers run to check if a newly installed programming language is working alright. Startups and tech companies are continuously launching new software to run the real world. This column will attempt to be the "Hello World" for the real world.

Formally, I was never a student of defence and military. Yet a decade ago I got interested in China even as Indian corporates began setting up establishments in Beijing and Shanghai, and Indian tourists started anchoring in that country for a holiday. China was also showing great interest in importing iron ore from India for all the steel that they wanted to manufacture and consume. I found this strange because the memory of the Chinese attack on India in 1962 was in my mind. But publishers were not interested in writings on the subject: two top publishers said no. However, the pandemic turned the tide; even as readers became interested, China attacked India in Ladakh, leading to greater appetite among readers. I began researching on China and this is what I found*:

• Even as Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru gave the call of "Hindi Chini bhai bhai", in 1954, the Chinese were not interested in the least. Mao Zedong thought that the Indians had assisted the British in exploiting and humiliating China in the 19th century through exports of opium that was grown in India and marketed by the East India Company. Mao’s feelings got strengthened because after the two opium wars waged by the Chinese to stop the entry of opium, the Chinese lost. The British took over ports like Shanghai and used strapping Sikh soldiers brought in from India to police the city. This was not liked by the Chinese.
• Mao’s distaste for Indians intensified after the Tibetan leaders, led by Dalai Lama, were allowed to run away from Tibet and take refuge in India in 1959. This, among other things, led to the 1962 Sino Indian conflict.
• Xi Jingpin became the top boss of China less than a decade ago. He was brought up as the son of an important Chinese leader but the father was purged and Xi was sent to a village to live a tough life with no beds and on rice gruel to eat. All this in the name of re-education. This did not disenchant Xi but toughened him. He sought a position in the Communist party after being freed. Once he was in the outfit, Xi maintained an extremely low profile. This led him to the top and now he has changed the rules so that he can continue for life.

The CPEC will pass into China through Pakistan occupied Kashmir (P0K), which is a cause for Indian worry

• Deng Xiaoping took over as the boss of China after Mao. But he was a practical leader who began modernizing China and relaxing controls. China was converted to a privately owned economy in many ways. This led to release of entrepreneurship in the industrial sector. However, like in the time of Mao, agricultural surpluses were appropriated and transferred to the cities. This created surpluses in the hands of the government as well and building huge foreign exchange reserves in the hands of the government.
• During the time of Xi, this foreign exchange reserve has started to be used by the Chinese to build infrastructure abroad. These are now part of the OBOR (one border one road) plan. Most of the countries where China's building are developing countries in great need of funds. The built up infrastructure will boost export opportunities for the countries that receive the funds and also for China, which insists that Chinese companies are used for construction and other allied services. The OBOR is like the Silk Road of the medieval period, which had a road connecting from China to Europe to facilitate trade in silk and other stuff. The Silk Road was hugely successful in boosting China’s income in the middle-ages.
• From the Indian point of view, the most important component of the plan is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which involves building of a highway from Gwadar port in Baluchistan to the backward Xinjiang province in China – with an SEZ and other industries strewn across. The CPEC will pass into China through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (P0K) which is a cause for Indian worry. The road, as it passes within Pakistan, is at strike range of India from Ladakh. This is believed to be the reason why the Chinese attacked Ladakh earlier this year.
• The CPEC also brings in the possibility of China and Pakistan coming together in opposing India – joint operations by the two, one from the north and the other from the west, can lead to disastrous results. But Indians whose markets are flooded by Chinese goods – whether they are toasters, hospital beds, household appliances or cell phones – are oblivious of the Chinese threat. It is time that we wake up.