For nearly two decades, BJP leaders like Narendra Modi have tried to understand Bengal and figure out how the saffron party could conquer the state. It was not an easy task because by the turn of the century, West Bengal was already under Left rule for nearly 25 years (the Left Front came to power in 1977). The Left’s winning formula and way of administration were unique and is best illustrated by the answer given by the state chief minister Jyoti Basu to a query by the VP Singh government in 1990. VP Singh, then keen to implement the Mandal Commission report, had sought to know the number of backward castes (BCs) in West Bengal. Pat came the reply from Jyoti Basu: there were no BCs in his state! The answer threw the then ruling establishment in Delhi (as would even the present government) into confusion.
After Mamata Banerjee (and the Trinamool Congress) rode into power in 2011 she could consolidate power only by taking recourse to a different route that brought back caste (also religious) politics in the state. Mamata realised that Muslims had become more than a quarter of West Bengal’s population and she decided to promote them as a support base. Unfortunately, she went overboard in the process – there was a picture of Mamata dressed as a Muslim woman with her head covered which greeted travellers as they exited Kolkata airport; in another instance, Mamata declared precedence to Mohurrum processions over Durga immersion when Dussehra (Vijaya Dashami) and Moharrum fell on the same day in 2016. However, this was reversed as per the order of the Calcutta High Court. Though after this the Mamata government took various steps to dilute its support to Muslims, the public opinion about the West Bengal government’s fondness for Muslims did not change.
Senior Trinamool Congress representatives are still sure that the Muslims of Bengal would cast their votes open heartedly for the party. But to confuse matters Asaduddin Owaisi of MIM has declared that his party would debut in West Bengal. Owaisi claims that this would be to increase coverage of his party although many think that MIM’s plan is to cut into the Muslim support base of the Trinamool Congress (TMC). There are allegations that MIM has been prompted by the BJP to contest in West Bengal although there is no concrete proof of this. But with MIM on the scene, the Muslim votes will be divided, aver analysts. TMC representatives argue that MIM will not be able to break into the Muslim votes. Reasons: MIM will only get support of the Urdu-speaking Muslims in West Bengal who have migrated from UP and Bihar and are confined to urban areas. But the Bengali-speaking Muslims who form the majority of Muslims in the state – located in the rural hinterland -will be unable to connect with MIM. Muslims comprise 27 percent of West Bengal’s electorate though the unofficial figures are much higher at 35 percent.
The battle is not only for Muslim votes but also for those of Scheduled Castes. Matuas are an organised Dalit group who migrated to West Bengal from across the border after the partition of Bengal. Concentrated in border districts, Mamata made an attempt to win the loyalty of the Matuas when she came to power. But now BJP is making an equally strong attempt to get the Matuas into their fold. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on Boodi Ma (old mother), the head of the Matuas and touched her feet a few months ago (before she died). This sent shock waves amongst the TMC ranks. Now it is said that the Matuas are being promised land in the 24 Parganas district where a large number of Muslim peasants live and farm. This has the potential of sparking off trouble and is causing anxiety to TMC leaders. Matuas have been traditionally farmers.
The BJP at the same time was influenced strongly by the reformist zeal of the Arya Samaj of Dayanand Saraswati. The Arya Samaj called for ‘back to the Vedas’ unlike Brahmo Samaj’s westernised influence. In some senses, the battle for Bengal boils down to a tussle between the values of the Brahmo Samaj and the Arya Samaj. Who will win remains the issue.
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