World oil demand this year and next is growing at less than half the pace seen in 2023.
Crude is expected to slide in the $55-$60 range on muted demand, Premasish Das, Executive Director of S&P Global Commodity Insights, has said
The growth in the current fiscal is supported by rising consumer, industrial and infrastructure demand, the rating agency said in the report, projecting India’s GDP growth at 6.4 percent in FY25.
The group, in its monthly oil report, said that the services sector is projected to be the main contributor to the economic growth in the second half of the year, particularly supported by travel and tourism.
The extension of supply cuts by the oil cartel till September 2024 is expected to have no impact on the supply of crude oil to India as the oil demand of the country has been met fairly till now.
OPEC anticipates total world oil demand to reach 104.5 million bpd for 2024, supported by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including trucking, as well as industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.
In first half of the year, OPEC expects India’s oil demand to increase by an average of around 250 thousand bpd year-on-year, supported by robust economic activity
The organisation, however, said the pace of expansion would still slow from 2.3 million bpd in 2023 to 1.3 million bpd in 2024. In the last month’s report, IEA had forecast global oil demand at 1.2 million bpd for 2024.
In an OPEC report released on March 12, the oil cartel said global oil demand is expected to expand by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, and by 1.8 million bpd in 2025.
The oil cartel said in a report that oil demand is expected to be supported by resilient global GDP growth, amid continued improvements in economic activity in China.
Benchmark Brent crude was trading at $81.43 per barrel on November 24. Prices declined almost 0.7% to end near $81 a barrel on November 23 after a sudden delay to a scheduled OPEC meeting.
RIL has said oil demand would settle at 102.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and average at 101.8 million bpd in 2023
According to a poll of 12 experts from brokerages and rating agencies, retail prices of petrol and diesel in India are expected to remain in the current range.
New supply from upcoming refining capacities in Middle East, China and Africa will likely keep the market balanced, the company said.
IEA said that growth of global oil demand is set to slow down, almost coming to a halt by 2028. This is due to hastened shift towards cleaner energy technologies for energy security concerns.
Lacklustre demand from China, high inflation globally, and recession fears in several countries of Europe have resulted in a decline in crude oil prices
Sanctioned producers are finding ways to get their crude to market.
Brent crude futures rose $1.16, or 1.5%, to $79.53 a barrel by 12:24 p.m. EDT (1624 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.99, or 2.7%, to $76.75.
Reliance Industries on April 21 reported 19.1 percent year-on-year (YoY) growth in consolidated profit at Rs 19,299 crore for the quarter ended March of the financial year 2022-23.
Decline in oil demand would be driven by the falling use of oil in road transport as vehicles become more efficient and are increasingly fuelled by alternative energy sources, said BP in a report.
IEA highlighted that Russia’s estimated oil export revenues rebounded by $1 billion to $12.7 billion.
Oil demand in India for 2023 will be driven by air travel recovery, supported by healthy mobility and steady industrial activity, said Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Share of oil in the energy mix will drop to 29 percent by 2045 from 31 percent in 2021, said Ayed S Al-Qahtani of OPEC.
Prices surged to 14-year high of $140 per barrel in March but have now tapered off to around $80 per barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to update its long-term oil demand forecasts in its 2022 World Oil Outlook on October 31.