OPEC keeps global oil demand forecast unchanged, expects growth of 2.2M bpd for 2024

OPEC anticipates total world oil demand to reach 104.5 million bpd for 2024

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast global oil demand to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), unchanged from last month, supported by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility.

In a monthly oil market report, OPEC said on May 14 that OECD oil demand is projected to grow by around 0.3 million bpd y-o-y in 2024, with the US leading the growth, supported by a slight uptick from both OECD Europe and Asia Pacific.

In the non-OECD, OPEC said oil demand is forecast to expand by nearly 2.0 million bpd y-o-y driven mostly by China, and supported by the Middle East, India, Other Asia and Latin America.

OPEC anticipates total world oil demand to reach 104.5 million bpd for 2024, supported by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including trucking, as well as industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. In the first quarter of 2024, global oil demand is expected to have grown by 2.4 million bpd y-o-y.

“Similarly, petrochemical capacity additions in non-OECD countries – mostly China and the Middle East – are anticipated to contribute to oil demand growth,” OPEC added.

For 2025, OPEC forecast robust global oil demand growth of 1.8 million bpd y-o-y, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. “Within the main regions, the OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.7 mb/d. In terms of products, transportation fuels are forecast to drive the growth, with jet/kerosene and gasoline each expanding by around 0.5 mb/d,” the report said.

The report said the forecast is subject to many uncertainties including the trajectory of global economic developments.