OPEC+ nears agreement for modest November production hike

While prices have held up relatively strongly to the supply added so far, there are now signs that the market is starting to shift

OPEC+ is close to an agreement in principle to make another modest supply increase for November, overcoming a difference in position between group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Key members of the alliance expect to ratify a decision to restart 137,000 barrels a day, the same volume scheduled for this month, the delegates said ahead of a video conference on Sunday. They asked not to be identified as the talks are private.

Russia, which has previously pushed for restraint in supply boosts, favored an adjustment that would help to defend prices while Saudi Arabia — more mindful of market share — supported a larger addition, one of the delegates said.

Oil prices traded near a four-month low on Friday, a reminder of the careful balancing act for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies as they return supply to a market in oversupply. The group is returning another layer of halted production — about 1.65 million barrels a day in total — having just restored an even bigger tranche.

While prices have held up relatively strongly to the supply added so far, there are now signs that the market is starting to shift. Unsold cargoes from the Middle East are accumulating and the futures forward curve is showing signs of near-term weakness. The International Energy Agency anticipates that inventories will pile up rapidly this quarter and that a record surplus will emerge in 2026 as global demand cools and supply across the Americas booms.

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that one option was for an increase of 137,000 barrels a day while another was for two or even three times that amount.

Saudi Arabia, which had borne the largest share of the production curtailments now being unwound, has led the group in its strategy shift to increase production in order to regain market share, Bloomberg reported previously. Sunday’s decision also comes ahead of a trip to Washington next month by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for a meeting with President Donald Trump, who has called repeatedly for lower oil prices.

Saudi and Russian officials didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The series of production hikes has also demonstrated the limitations to spare capacity actually available across the OPEC+ alliance. The eight key OPEC+ members restored only about 60% of the 2.2 million barrel—a-day supply tranche scheduled between May and September, in part because certain countries are compensating for prior overproduction, but also signaling that some members may already be pumping almost as much as they can.