The GST cuts announced, however, changes the view now. With these cuts expected to raise consumption, there would be a tendency for capacity utilisation to improve leading to higher investment. A rate cut can then be justified on grounds of supporting growth.
In its policy meeting on April 8, the RBI also raised its inflation forecast for this financial year to 5.7 percent from the previously estimated 4.5 percent, indicating that a shift in priorities towards taming price pressures was indeed warranted.
This, unfortunately, is the result of market economics or economic Darwinism. The governments have worked to give freebies but have not been able to provide a sustainable living for them, he says.
The interest rates that the states pay to their bonds holders (state development loans or SDLs) have been going up in spite of the fact their drawdowns have been 37 per cent lower so far this fiscal than what they had borrowed during the same period last fiscal, says chief economist at Care Ratings Madan Sabnavis.
In a panel discussion on CNBC-TV18, Pronab Sen, Former Chief Statistician of India said that formal sector data is used as a proxy to estimate the informal sector data, hence even though the informal sector was hit harder due to demonetisation the numbers don't seem to reflect it.
Going forward it is going to be a sharp fall in the next couple of months and the negative number can further increase for the months of November and December due to demonetisation, said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Care ratings.
Two out of three economists Moneycontrol spoke to believe the demonetisation drive by the government won‘t immediately force The Reserve Bank to cut its key policy rate in its December policy review. But a February rate cut is not ruled out, they say.
India‘s factory output grew 0.7 percent in September, recovering only marginally from the previous month‘s fall of (-) 0.7 percent, data released on Friday showed.
The government has imposed an export ban and set a stock limit to be maintained by sugar mills. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Care Ratings says government is not expected to ease these measures very soon due to the volatility of the commodity.
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of CARE Ratings said certain industries are hopeful of a rate cut as investment is facilitated with lower rates. However, keeping current inflation rate in sight it seems unlikely RBI will deviate from its target.
More than anything, timeliness of the decision (amid Brexit jitters, Rexit woes and monsoon showers) will be highly beneficial for the companies. "With disbursements expected to come in by August-September, it is going to be a bumper festive season," says Kevin D'sa, President Finance of Bajaj Auto.
The March quarter saw net sales of nearly 2,900 companies declining by 1.3 per cent and net profit plunging 27.1 percent, Care Ratings has said, despite brokerages lapping up the "stellar performance"
Consumer prices rose 5.4 percent last month, according to the survey of 21 economists, which would mark an acceleration from 5.0 percent in October. The data will be released on December 14.
The Sensex fell to a 10-week low last week and closed at 27,975.86 on Monday but the poll of 21 analysts taken in the past week forecast it would recover to 29,500 by mid-year and reach a record high of 32,000 by the end of December.
Madan Sabnavis believes RBI will be looking more closely at food inflation rather than core inflation. He adds that there are two key determinants of inflation – food and fuel - both of which have to be monitored on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, CARE Ratings is not expecting a turnaround in the fourth quarter – there isn't much pickup in consumption, investment or even government expenditure. He says going by the revised fiscal data released by the government on Friday, it does not have much room to increase expenditure either.
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Care Ratings feels India should go ahead and ensure that this particular objective of food security is maintained.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, CARE Ratings says the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government is not in any hurry to issue sovereign bonds to help stabilise the rupee.
The December inflation has come in at 8.4% today. This is capping the week when even the prime minister held several consultations. But, he was unable to propose any concrete plan to be able to bring inflation under control. Can we do anything to rectify the situation? Are we faced with fate comply?