Fitch said there is evidence of an underlying US slowdown in the 'hard economic data', but China’s export growth has managed to hold up well in the face of the shock of Trump tariffs, and even Eurozone growth has seen positive surprises
The acquisition of stake in Indian banking entities could benefit the acquiring banks as it would offer them a wider branch network, which in turn could propel franchise growth in India's competitive banking industry, said Fitch Ratings.
The growth in the current fiscal is supported by rising consumer, industrial and infrastructure demand, the rating agency said in the report, projecting India’s GDP growth at 6.4 percent in FY25.
The key risk, says Fitch, "is if this private investment cycle does not materialise as a result of subdued consumption, which would weigh on job creation and dampen potential benefits from India's demographic dividend"
"Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on India-based Tata Steel Limited's (TSL) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative, from Stable, and affirmed the IDR at 'BBB-'.
Zook said that though public capex has been supportive, if the government is hoping to consolidate, then the strong growth impetus seen so far may fade.
Zook added that the potential volatility from hot money flows are likely to be limited as well since the increase in foreign participation, on account of inclusion of Indian bonds in global indices, is expected to be relatively modest in the foreseeable future.
The government is looking to bring its fiscal deficit target to below 4.5 percent of GDP by FY26 and is targeting 5.1 percent in the ongoing financial year. According to Fitch Ratings' Zook, the upcoming Budget is likely to see a slight shift in the composition of spending with more thrust on social measures, but that will not have any impact on the government's fiscal consolidation path.
The record Rs 2.11 lakh crore dividend can be used to narrow the fiscal deficit gap beyond 5.1%, the rating agency said, adding the post-election budget would offer clarity on the government's priorities
he Finance Ministry said it was a pity that Fitch had downgraded its sovereign debt and faulted its methods, saying it had failed to take into account Beijing's moves toward appropriately intensifying, improving quality and efficiency of its government spending.
On the profitability front, the ratings agency said continue to improve, although NIM compression will limit earnings upside over the medium term.
Fitch has also downgraded UPL Corp's senior unsecured rating and the ratings on the senior unsecured notes to 'BB+', from 'BBB-'.
According to the ratings agency, the Indian government’s aggressive fiscal target for the next financial year is unlikely to result in any significant changes in the country's sovereign credit profile.
"India is poised to remain one of fastest-growing countries globally in next few years," the ratings agency said
Fitch Ratings, a leading credit rating organisation, anticipates that India's sustained economic growth will enhance corporate demand.
At present, India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, coming after the United States, China, Germany, and Japan. By 2030, India's GDP is projected to exceed Japan's, making it the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region
The global GDP growth is estimated to be 0.4 percentage points lower in 2024, with a more modest 0.1 percentage point decrease in 2025.
Fitch attributes the higher growth prediction for several countries to one a shared factor — the rapid rebound in labour force participation rates, especially after substantial declines in 2020
The ratings agency said increasing regulatory requirements, elevated inflation and high interest rates have pushed up the ownership costs, thereby weighing on purchase decisions.
Fitch revised its OE mid-point score for Indian banks to ‘bb’ from ‘bb+’ in March 2020.
The ratings agency had earlier slashed its assessment of the US banking industry to AA- in June, but the move largely went unnoticed as it did not warrant an individual downgrade of the American banks
Arya said that India has one of the best demographics in the world, but in order to take advantage of this dividend, the country needs to increase the participation of women in the workforce, which, at 24 percent, is much lower than the global average.
At close, the Sensex was down 676.53 points to 65,782.78, and the Nifty was down 207.00 points to 19,526.50
According to Jeremy Zook, Fitch’s primary rating analyst for India, India’s revenue growth may soon plateau and require fiscal consolidation to be supported by expenditure cuts
The U.S. dollar-denominated senior unsecured notes will be part of the India-based bank's US$10 billion medium-term note program, agencies said.