Traders on Wednesday boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September after consumer inflation cooled more than expected last month
The CPI increased 3.4% after climbing 3.5% in March
The possibility of rate cut and the probability of improvement in fiscal math augur well for bond trade
Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent.
Analysts believe that the much- anticipated 25 basis point Fed hike this time will have minimal impact on the strength of Indian markets
The dearness allowance for employees and pensioners is worked out on the basis of the latest Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) brought out by the Labour Bureau every month. The Labour Bureau is a wing of the Labour Ministry.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.6% from the prior month and 6% from a year ago, also above forecasts.
US inflation: The consumer price index (CPI) climbed 7.5 percent over the 12 months to January, its largest increase since February 1982.
The CPI-based inflation in September 2021 was at 4.35 percent and in October 2020 it was 7.61 percent.
The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index excluding the volatile food and energy components rose 0.3 percent last month.
India's retail inflation cooled down to 1.54 percent in June from 2.18 percent in May, mainly due to goods and services tax-induced discounts. Core inflation rate was at 3.8 percent versus 4.2 percent month on month and food inflation came in at -1.17 percent versus -1.05 percent MoM.
Retail inflation slows to its lowest level ever in the month of May. Consumer price index (CPI) drops to just over 2 percent as food prices contract over 1 percent and vegetable prices shrink over 13 percent. Industrial output picks up pace in April to clock a 3.1 percent growth rate. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, A Prasanna, Chief Economist at I-Sec PD shared his views and readings of the inflation data.
The consumer price index (CPI) for the month of June is seen at 5.75 percent versus 5.76 percent for the month of May. The range is likely to be between 5.5-6.2 percent.
Inflation numbers, progress of monsoon rains and key global developments, including the US Fed meeting, will lay the pitch for the stock market movement this week, say analysts.
Inflation has evolved closely along the trajectory set by the monetary policy stance, he said, adding that with unfavourable base effects on the ebb and benign prices of fruits and vegetables and crude oil, the January 2016 target of 6 percent should be met. Inflation, both at wholesale and retail levels, has been on a rising trend.
According to CNBC-TV18 poll, December CPI is seen at 5.5% versus 5.41% seen in the month of November.
Chetan Ahya, Co-Head-Global Economics & Chief Asia Economist Morgan Stanley, does not expect any change from RBI on Dec 1 but expects Fed to hike in mid-December.
If one were to look at the average IIP growth for April to August then around 20-25 percent was contributed from this sector, says Anubhuti Sahay, Senior Economist-Global Research, Standard Chartered Bank.
Core CPI is expected to come in at the same levels as last month at around 4.3 percent and the range is between 4.2 and 4.5 percent.
Sources say Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan have agreed to a model of the proposed monetary policy committee (MPC).
The People`s Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 100 basis points on Sunday - its second cut in two months. That followed data on Saturday showing home prices dropped for the eleventh straight month in March.
The producer price index (PPI) declined 4.6 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday, extending a long-running factory deflation cycle that began in March 2012 to three years.
The core inflation is estimated to possibly decline further to a figure of around 0.6 versus around 0.88 percent month-on-month.
According to Harendra Kumar if Elara Capital this is a market for traders but they too have to move in and out quickly to take advantage of the momentum.
The IIP data has been extremely meager and weak in the past many months, so it is not expected to reflect any sort of improvement this time around. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data is expected to be a contraction of around 1.1 percent.