Buy Natco Pharma: target of Rs 954: ICICI Securities

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ICICI Securities research report on Natco Pharma

Natco Pharma (Natco) would be the first company to launch Revlimid (lenalidomide) in Mar’22 as Dr Reddy’s (DRL) settlement with Celgene over its patent clears the path for Natco. DRL would launch sometime after Natco (we assume 6 months) and would have market share restrictions lower than Natco in our view. Till date, three companies (Natco, DRL and Alvogen) have settled the litigation with innovator and would launch during this exclusivity period (FY23- FY26).

Outlook

We expect Natco to generate total revenue and PAT of US$1.3bn and US$900mn during the shared exclusivity period over FY23-FY26. This would imply an NPV of Rs302/share for Revlimid for Natco. Upgrade to BUY.

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