Why assembly wins count for BJP to place its man as President

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures as he addresses an election campaign rally in Allahabad, India, February 20, 2017. REUTERS/Jitendra Prakash - RTSZHO9

BJP wants to push its own candidate to be the next President based on its political and ideological calculations.

Insiders say, the party may prefer a Brahmin for President and Dalit for Vice-President. Also, it may have a member of its parent body RSS in the top post.

As on today, the arithmetic doesn’t favour BJP to get its nominee elected to President post.

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – a coalition led by BJP need 549,441 votes to nominate its candidate for presidency. It falls short by 91,658 votes required to win the prestigious battle that involves an electoral college of 10.98 lakh votes.

But a big win in UP and some good performances in other four states will significantly alter the numbers to its advantage.

The value of MLA votes in the five state assemblies is 103,756, of which UP alone has 83,824 votes.

So far the exit polls have predicted BJP to emerge as single largest party in UP and some polls have even hinted it might get the requisite numbers to form a government.

According to exit polls, other states -- Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa - are expected to have favourable results for BJP. In Punjab, however, it is widely expected that it will be either AAP or Congress which may form the government.

BJP could tap AIADMK in Tamil Nadu to make its case for presidency stronger. Tamil Nadu has 41,184 votes which is critical too and a bulk of votes could tilt the scales in favour of the NDA candidate in the post-Jayalalithaa phase of Tamil Nadu politics if the ruling alliance in Delhi plays its cards well.

If all this works out, the NDA’s vote share could cross the 5 lakh mark. Thereafter, the NDA will have to do a mopping-up operation to secure the support of smaller parties scattered across the land in order to have its candidate succeed Pranab Mukherjee as the Rashtrapati.

Electoral College strength:

Total value of MLA votes: 5,49,474

Total value of MPs votes: 5,49,408 (LS-3,84,444; RS-164964)

Total strength is: 10,98,882

Minimum majority votes are: 5,49,441

NDA strength in college: 457,342 (based on 39 parties which fought 2014 polls)

Shortfall for NDA majority: 91,658

Value of MLA votes in 5 state assembly elections 2017:

Uttar Pradesh: 83,824

Punjab: 13,572

Goa: 800

Manipur: 1,080

Uttarakhand: 4,480

Total number of votes: 1,03,756