Uddhav Vs Shinde | With new symbols Shiv Sena factions prepare for poll battle

Uddhav Thackeray (left) and Ekanth Shinde. (Representative Image)

As Uddhav Thackeray, the direct familial heir of the Shiv Sena founded by his late father Bal Thackeray in 1966, stood up to address party workers in Uran, near Mumbai, this week, he would have recalled an unpleasant political episode from 1985. “We will teach our detractors a lesson, a befitting lesson,” Thackeray exhorted his party workers, days after the party’s name and symbol had been dramatically changed. The new name, allotted by the election commission, is a mouthful: ‘Shiv Sena – Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray’, and the party’s 38-year-old symbol of bow-and-arrow has been replaced with the flaming torch (mashaal).

The Shiv Sena was stripped of its identity in June when the late Thackeray’s loyalist Eknath Shinde stunned Uddhav by splitting its legislative wing. The split, a guerrilla operation, apparently had the blessings — logistical and otherwise — of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Within days, Shinde and BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis formed the Maharashtra government replacing the one led by Uddhav Thackeray.

However, Shinde did not function like the other turncoats in the Shiv Sena, who had walked out alone or with only a handful of loyalists which did not shake the very foundation of the party; Shinde’s rebellion was larger, and led to the party losing its name and symbol. A non-Thackeray, a local satrap, claimed to be the true heir of Bal Thackeray’s politics. To Uddhav Thackeray, Shinde’s blow would have hurt as much as when his cousin Raj Thackeray walked out of the party in 2005.

The Thackerays, Uddhav and son Aaditya, are staring at contesting elections — an assembly seat from suburban Mumbai in three weeks’ time and the all-important general body of the forthcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections — with a depleted organisation, and without its ubiquitous ‘bow-and-arrow’ symbol.

The flaming torch has appeared in various avatars in the party’s newspaper Saamna and other sundry material. It is not an unfamiliar symbol to Shiv Sainiks — of both the Thackeray and Shinde factions. The question is: Can Uddhav Thackeray make it resonate with the party cadre and local leaders who have chosen to side with him, and ensure that the party’s committed voters recognise it too? It will take all of Uddhav Thackeray’s smart moves — and more — to swing the assembly bypoll which will be bellwether for the BMC elections.

Of the 55 party MLAs elected in 2019, only 16 remain with Uddhav Thackeray, but there’s constant chatter about one or another switching sides. Analysts have offered the argument that the legislative and organisational wings of the party are not the same, and most of the organisation seems to be with Uddhav Thackeray if his annual Dussehra rally earlier this month was an indication. Whether this sea of support can be turned into votes for Uddhav Thackeray’s candidates, and cross-voting can be prevented, will determine the results.

Uddhav Thackeray goes into this battle with a depleted second rung, and tighter resources; add to that his indifferent health and the limitations it had put on him in recent months — he and his party can hardly be as aggressive as the Shiv Sena has traditionally been known to be in Mumbai. His new political friends, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party, are backing him but they hardly have a footprint in Mumbai.

Besides, it is possible that Shinde, from his Chief Minister’s chamber, ably guided by Fadnavis, can move pieces across the board to stymie his former boss. Shinde, whose party is now officially called Balasaheb’s Shiv Sena, has to prove his worth to his new ally, the BJP, and will pull out all stops to ensure that his candidates trump those of Uddhav Thackeray. In fact, Uddhav Thackeray had to go to the court to ensure that the Dussehra rally, a tradition in the party since its inception, would be held at its permanent address, Shivaji Park, and Shinde not be allowed to use the venue. Shinde’s party has been allotted the sword and shield symbol — an apt one considering that he is locked into a do-or-die battle with Uddhav Thackeray.

If Thackeray manages to overcome the odds, the story would be worth a book. He might want to remember the 1985 episode. After contesting the previous year’s Lok Sabha election on the BJP’s lotus symbol, the late Thackeray had had a fallout with his ally. Stung by the BJP’s inflexible attitude, which had a symbol by the virtue of being a national party, Bal Thackeray had instructed his men to contest the assembly election on other symbols. Chhagan Bhujbal, who was to rebel and quit the party six years later, won his assembly seat on the flaming torch symbol.

Shiv Sainiks, of both factions, know both the symbols. Since 2012, a live mashaal has been burning at the Shivaji Park spot where Bal Thackeray was cremated that November. Whether Uddhav Thackeray can evoke the associations with the mashaal is important, but only this will not help unless he is able to reassemble his poll machinery and ground-level network to take on another ‘Shiv Sena’. Shinde may be a detractor, but one with a dominating ally.