Lok Sabha polls Phase 5 | Amid contest between bigwigs, will caste matrix ensure victory in UP's Awadh?

The fifth phase of the Lok Sabha election will witness 14 constituencies from Uttar Pradesh going to polls. This phase has some of the big battles — Congress bastions Amethi and Rae Bareli, as well as Lucknow and Faizabad.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won 12 out of these 14 constituencies, barring Amethi and Rae Bareli. However, this year, the Congress, which had won seven out of these 14 constituencies in 2009, is hoping to take on the BJP directly in four other seats — Dhaurahra, Barabanki, Faizabad and Sitapur.

Meanwhile, the SP and BSP had finished second in 10 of these seats, and combined, their vote share can take the wind out of the saffron party’s sails.

As the battle moves east towards the Awadh region, let’s take a close look at what is at stake in the fifth phase.

Amethi

Amethi has Smriti Irani against Rahul Gandhi. In the 2009 elections, the BJP had polled an abysmal 37,570 votes. But in 2014, when the saffron party pitted Irani against Rahul on his home turf, the BJP ended up polling 3,00,748 votes, only around one lakh short of Gandhi’s winning tally.

This year again, Amethi will see a battle between the two bigshots. While Priyanka Gandhi has been campaigning for her brother aggressively in their bastion, Irani is leading the charge with Modi by her side.

The SP-BSP combine is not fielding a candidate from the seat to prevent division of anti-BJP votes.

Lucknow

Stray cows have given the residents of Lucknow the problem of plenty. After the Yogi Adityanath government banned cow slaughter in UP immediately after coming to power in 2017, cows are being abandoned by their owners once they stop giving milk. Earlier, such cows were sold off easily. However, people are now scared to do so due to fear of cow vigilantes or ‘gau rakshaks’.

This has led to an increase in stray cows, which are creating a menace on roads, particularly the Lucknow-Agra highway, causing many fatal accidents. In fact, Deputy Chief Minister Dinesh Sharma escaped a major accident recently when a cow suddenly appeared before his car on the highway, forcing the driver to swerve.

They are also ruining the crop of many wheat-growing farmers in Gonda.

Lucknow is going to witness a big battle between Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh against SP candidate Poonam Sinha, wife of Shatrughan Sinha. Meanwhile, the Congress has fielded Acharya Pramod Krishnan. Shivpal Yadav’s breakaway party Progressive Democratic Alliance has decided not to field a candidate and support the Congress in this seat.

Faizabad

Faizabad parliamentary constituency is sensitive, mainly because it houses the town of Ayodhya – the disputed site of the Ram Janmabhoomi/ Babri Masjid.

In addition, last year, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had announced that the name of the Faizabad district be changed to Ayodhya, a move that didn’t go down well with the residents.

The saffron party had retained the seat in the 1996 general election, which was after the 1992 demolition of Babri Masjid, an event that snowballed into communal riots across the nation.

This time, the BJP has retained sitting MP Lallu Singh, who had polled 48% votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In the fray are SP’s Anandsen Yadav and Congress’ Nirmal Khatri, who polled 12% votes in the previous election.

SP's candidate selection for this seat is interesting. Anandsen Yadav is the son of former Faizabad MP, late Mitrasen Yadav, who was accused of the rape and murder of a local Pasi girl. Even though Mitrasen was acquitted in 2012 when the SP had come to power, Anandsen’s candidature has angered the 1.75 lakh strong Pasi community, the second-largest Dalit caste after Jatavs in the state.

Barabanki

In Barabanki, which is a reserved seat, caste dynamics are crucial. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s Priyanka Singh Rawat had polled 43% votes in the seat. However, this year, she has been replaced with Upendra Rawat. Meanwhile, the Congress has fielded Tanuj Punia, son of former MP PL Punia, and the SP has fielded Ram Sagar Rawat.

In Barabanki, the SP-BSP-RLD combine is certain of getting the Yadav and Jatav votes. With local strongman and UPA minister Beni Parsad Verma consolidating the 10 percent Kurmi vote for the gathbandhan, and the SP wooing Muslim voters, the gathbandhan might have an edge on this seat.

However, with Yadavs dominating the SP and the Jatavs dominating the BSP, the non-Yadav, non-Jatav Dalits are unhappy with the SP-BSP combine. In an attempt to pacify these minorities, the SP has fielded a Pasi (non-Jatav Dalits) candidate, but so has the BJP. Odds might favour the saffron party if they are successful in mobilizing the non-Yadav, non-Jatav voters along with upper castes (Brahmin-Bania-Thakurs).

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has campaigned in this constituency.

Rae Bareli

Rae Bareli has been a citadel of the Congress since time immemorial, with the exception of 1996 and 1998 when the seat went to the BJP.

UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, who has won from this seat four times in a row, is in direct contest with BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh, who recently switched sides from the Congress to the ruling party.

The SP-BSP-RLD combine has not fielded any candidate from the seat in order to avoid splitting of the anti-BJP vote.

Congress UP (East) General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi was seen actively canvassing Rae Bareli, as a crusader of the party, giving powerful comebacks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and debunking Mayawati's allegations of the Congress being hand-in-glove with the saffron party.

Mohanlalganj

In Mohanlalganj, which is a reserved seat and is dominated by the Pasi community, the Congress has fielded former BSP leader and close aide of BSP founder Kanshi Ram, RK Chaudhary. Chaudhary is pitted against CL Verma, a close confidant of BSP supremo Mayawati. Meanwhile, the BJP has fielded sitting MP Kaushal Kishore.

Sitapur and Dhaurahra

In Dhaurahra, the Congress has fielded Jitin Prasada against BJP’s Rekha Verma, who won in the 2014 election and is the sitting MLA.

Meanwhile, in Sitapur, BSP’s Nakul Dubey, Congress’ Kaiser Jahan and BJP’s Rajesh Verma are in the fray.

Both Sitapur and Dhaurahra are dominated by Kurmis, which is the second largest Other Backward Class (OBC) group in Uttar Pradesh after Yadavs.