Lok Sabha Polls: In Kerala’s capital, the fight is between the Congress and BJP

There’s something unforgiving about the summer sun in Kerala.

It's election time and political parties should be in full-swing campaign mode — but the scorching sun has literally forced every candidate to suspend election activities between 11 am and 3 pm. The summer rains which bring much-needed respite have given a miss this time. The Kerala government has appealed to the people to be cautious and avoid outdoor activities during this period.

For political parties, this curfew means failing to cover that extra mile and losing that edge where an additional door-to-door campaign or road show could make the difference.

However, smart politicians adapt to the situation.

Tharoor’s barnstorm

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Viju Cherian

Opinion Editor|moneycontrol.com

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It’s a hotter-than-usual afternoon and a handful of supporters are waiting for Shashi Tharoor, the sitting MP from Thiruvananthapuram and Congress Lok Sabha candidate, at the Thiruvallam school junction. He was scheduled to reach there at 9:30 am but is running late.

I join the group of local leaders who are debating whether or not to burst crackers when Tharoor arrives. The leader in-charge of the crackers is in two minds because, in his words, there is an old-age home nearby with a “lot of heart patients” and bursting crackers could disturb them. After some deliberation, they decide against it.

From crackers, the topic changes to how many votes each leader can canvas from his respective area. A younger leader in the group brazenly says, “It’s difficult. From our ward, only a few families will stand with us. All the others will choose the lotus (BJP’s poll symbol).” The other leaders agree with a pensive nod.

Just when it seemed that damp crackers and ‘lotus’ supporters had cast a pall over the workers, a microphone at a distance announced the arrival of Tharoor.

Now, campaign announcements should be recognized as an art form — if it is not yet done. There are two types of announcements — the pre-recorded ones and the live announcements done by anyone who owns a clear voice and a worn-out thesaurus. The pre-recorded ones are predictable and synthetic like fast food, but the live announcements — they crystallise the local flavours and pack a punch. The one approaching the school junction is a live announcement.

In addition to referring to Tharoor as a two-time MP, former United Nations official, celebrated author, some of the honorifics used for Tharoor are: Lionized foreign policy expert, the prince of knowledge, superior lawmaker, the one who with his arguments made the British bend their knees, the pride of Ananthapuri (Ananthapuri is a literary reference to Thiruvananthapuram), etc.

Along with the announcement comes a pack of motorbikes at the head of Tharoor’s barnstorm. Waving Congress flags and shouting slogans, the bikers announce their arrival. The school junction slowly gets packed and by the time Tharoor arrives, there are hundreds of people waiting in anticipation. It’s 11:30 am by then.

Tharoor addresses the crowd, reminds them why he is the ideal candidate to represent them in Delhi and requests that they vote for him. In five minutes, his election convoy moves to the next location, the Parasurama Temple, hardly a kilometre away.

Kummanam’s siesta

If the jamboree of the hustings is what Tharoor has used to beat the summer sun, his rival and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Kummanam Rajasekharan prefers a quieter route. About 15 kilometres north of Thiruvallam is Attipara. Here at the periphery of an industrial estate and Technopark, a house in a settlement colony awaits Rajasekharan. There isn't the full throttle slogans heard at Thiruvallam nor are there people lining both sides of the road to greet their candidate. Here there is a quiet anticipation, much like they're waiting for a senior member of the family. There are no microphones, no announcements, no speeches nor any other election paraphernalia.

Around 1:15 pm, the former Mizoram governor walks on a narrow path towards the house of a local council member — lunch is arranged here and after lunch, it's siesta time. Unlike the hundreds that surrounded Tharoor, here there are about 40 people.

While Rajasekharan is having lunch inside the house, outside in the portico, local leaders are fine-tuning the evening’s programme. At a rally, the BJP candidate will officially launch a CD featuring the campaign songs. A local leader is heard on the phone instructing someone to print a banner for the event in the evening. “The flex needs to feature both Modi and Amit Shah………oh…….okay, if that’s not possible, make sure that Modi is there on it. Also ensure that the slogan ‘Once More Modi’ is prominently printed on the banner.”

If Tharoor’s campaign reflects Indian election pageantry in bright colours, Rajasekharan’s style is more subtle and understated. Both have adopted different styles and approaches, and both are potent in their own ways — but only one of them will win the election.

The CPI’s pale shadow

In addition to the BJP and the Congress, the Communist Party of India (CPI) has also fielded a candidate from Thiruvananthapuram. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate is sitting MLA C Divakaran. However, unless there is a tectonic shift in voting patterns in the constituency, the chances of Divakaran upsetting both Tharoor and Rajasekharan are slim.

The last time a CPI candidate won the Lok Sabha seat was in 2005. In the two general elections since then, the CPI candidate has not been able to put up a respectable fight — in the 2014 election, the CPI candidate had to settle for the third spot, behind the Congress and the BJP. Also, over the years, the CPI’s voting percentage has declined. From an all-time high of 51% in 2005 it went down to 28% in 2014.

Interestingly, the CPI does not have an MLA from any of the seven assembly constituencies that form the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency. In the 2016 state polls, of the seven seats, the Congress and the CPI(M) won three, while the BJP won its first seat in Kerala from Nemom.

Rajagopal effect

The BJP is yet to win a Lok Sabha seat from Kerala. Even in 2014, at the height of the ‘Modi wave’, the BJP had to console itself that it had increased its voting percentage in the state from 6.31% in 2009 to 10.3%.

However, Thiruvananthapuram has for decades been a constituency where the BJP has had a respectable presence. Since the 1991 general elections, BJP candidates have always polled in more than 10% of the total votes — except in the 2005 bypoll.

If one were to look at the BJP’s numbers in the constituency, it is evident that more than the party, it is the profile of the candidate that matters. For almost three decades now O Rajagopal, former Union minister and the sitting MLA from Nemom (which comes under the Thiruvananthapuram LS constituency), has been the BJP’s face in the state capital. In 2014, Rajagopal lost the election to Tharoor by a margin of 15,470 votes. He came first in four of the seven assembly constituencies.

Given this, there’s a lot riding on Rajasekharan — however, many agree that he does not have an across-party-lines acceptability that Rajagopal had. So, while it is believed that he will give Tharoor a tough fight, many local BJP leaders are not confident that he could turn the tables. A factor which could tilt the scales in his favour is the sentiments the Sabarimala protests have evoked.

Goodwill and persona

Tharoor, ever since he first represented the constituency in 2009, has become Kerala’s voice in Delhi. That he is articulate in English and Hindi is a point his supporters highlight when campaigning for Tharoor. That lack of coordination in the local Congress unit could act as a headwind against him, but some local leaders feel that Tharoor’s style of functioning could make up for that.

“Though the party structure here needs fortifying, the policies adopted by both the central and state governments have made the people realise that the Congress is the only party which will protect their rights and freedoms. Both [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi and [Chief Minister Pinarayi] Vijayan have given hollow promises to the people,” says Abhilash Nair, general secretary, Thiruvananthapuram District Congress Committee. “Also, Tharoor is a leader who is approachable at any time; he has established a direct link with the people. Above all, his stature and clean track record is what attracts both young and old voters towards him.”

From touring the constituency and speaking to people it is evident that if Rajasekharan or Divakaran were to win the credit should go to the party machinery in the constituency. However, if Tharoor wins a third time, it will be more because of his persona.