Lok Sabha polls: How the AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi could have dealt BJP a major blow

The Indian National Congress on April 22 announced six of its seven candidates in Delhi for the Lok Sabha election. This effectively ended the possibility of an alliance between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

While the AAP has already declared its seven candidates in the state, they had not filed their nominations. Congress and AAP were reportedly engaged in unsuccessful seat-sharing talks to put up a united anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) front.

The aim was to stop the splitting of anti-BJP votes in Delhi.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal-led party sprung up in the aftermath of massive anti-corruption protests in India between 2011 and 2013 when the Congress was in power both at the Centre and in the state.

Political observers suggest that AAP’s rise was at the cost of the Congress. The AAP eroded the traditional Congress voter base significantly. In fact, in 2015, AAP won 67 out of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly election. The BJP won three seats while Congress failed to open its account.

The 2014 Lok Sabha polls had seen a three-way battle similar to what is expected to happen now. The BJP won all seven seats in Delhi with a total vote share of 46.6 percent. AAP secured 33.1 percent of the votes while the Congress had a 15.2 percent vote share.

Here’s the Assembly elections vote share of the top three parties:

The chart shows how AAP’s vote share increased steadily while that of the Congress plummeted during the same period. The BJP’s vote share remained nearly unaffected.

Even in the 2014 general election, while BJP was able to attract significant percentage of the anti-incumbency votes, AAP managed to pick up a 33 percent vote starting from scratch.

AAP and Congress’ combined vote share would be about 48.3 percent against 46.6 percent of the BJP.Seat-wise arithmetic

Based on the 2014, a smooth flow of votes between the AAP and the Congress would have let them wrest six seats from the BJP and possibly close the margin in the seventh seat.

Smooth transfer of votes between AAP and Congress, however, is not guaranteed. For example, the Congress and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) alliance in the 2018 Telangana Assembly election was arithmetically sound. However, it failed to make a gains. There are other factors such as local anti-incumbency and the candidates themselves that have a bearing on how people vote.

All seats in Delhi vote in a single phase on May 12.

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