Karnataka political crisis: Why the BJP is wary of moving a no-confidence motion in the Assembly

Representative image

Even with the political storm brewing over the Congress-JD(S) coalition in Karnataka, the Opposition BJP is still wary of moving a no-confidence motion in the monsoon session of the legislature, which is scheduled from July 12.

Despite 16 MLAs tendering their resignation, and the winds on their side, the saffron party is still single-mindedly demanding the resignation of Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy on moral grounds.

Then what is making the BJP nervous? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Although at least 16 MLAs from the Congress-JD(S) camp have decided to quit, yet Karnataka Assembly Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar has not accepted the resignations, pointing out that eight were not even in the correct format. In response to a plea filed by the rebel MLAs, the Supreme Court has asked the Speaker to take the decision on the resignations today itself.

In the scenario that none of the resignations are accepted, the strength of the Assembly remains 224. In the case of a trust vote or no-confidence motion, the coalition can pass the test by issuing a whip to all their MLAs.

In case an MLA defies the whip, he can be disqualified under the anti-defection law, which will lead to the strength (and hence the half-way mark) of the Assembly to come down accordingly.

In a second scenario, if all the resignations are accepted, the Assembly strength comes down to 208 (224-16). Which makes the halfway mark 104. Then, the numbers will be as follows:

BJP – 105

Congress – 66

JD(S) – 34

BSP – 1

Independents – 2

The Congress-JD(S) coalition in Karnataka is also relying on the Tamil Nadu model, so as to save their government from falling.

In 2017, 18 AIADMK MLAs broke away from the government and owed allegiance to TTV Dinakaran. The breakaway faction led to the AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu falling short of a majority. However, the Speaker P Dhanapal disqualified them under the anti-defection law. The rebel MLAs filed a petition against the decision in the Madras High Court and subsequently in the Supreme Court, but, both the courts upheld the Speaker’s decision. Hence, by-elections were held for the vacated seats in the state.

Which brings us to the third scenario: In the case, the Karnataka Assembly Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar disqualifies the 16 rebel MLAs. In this case too, the Opposition BJP can move a no-confidence motion if it feels the ruling coalition does not have the majority in the Assembly.

Perhaps, the BJP will be in a better place to decide their future course of action, after the Speaker decides the fate of the rebel MLAs.

As per the Supreme Court’s directive, the rebel MLAs are to meet the Speaker today at 6pm to resubmit their resignations. After which, the Speaker is to decide whether to accept them or not and intimate the court for its proceedings tomorrow.

The Speaker had, earlier today, appealed to the apex court seeking more time to process the resignations, but his plea was rejected.