Karnataka bypolls: How will SC verdict allowing rebel MLAs to contest elections impact state politics

File Pic: BS Yeddyurappa & other Karnataka BJP MLAs in the Karnataka Assembly after winning floor test.

The Supreme Court on November 13 upheld the disqualification of the 17 rebel MLAs belonging to the former Congress-JD(S) government in Karnataka, while allowing them to contest elections.

In July this year, former Karnataka Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar had disqualified 14 rebel MLAs of the Congress and three of the JD(S) under the anti-defection law and had barred them from contesting elections during the tenure of the current Assembly, which is until 2023.

The top court’s ruling has paved the way for the disqualified MLAs to contest in the forthcoming Karnataka bypolls, scheduled to be held on December 5.

While Chief Minister of the ruling BJP BS Yediyurappa has welcomed the judgment, former CM HD Kumaraswamy has dismissed it, saying, “The decision has no meaning.”

Why the MLAs were disqualified and what ramifications does the Supreme Court verdict have on the upcoming bypolls, as well as the stability of Yediyurappa’s government in Karnataka, let’s find out.

Why were the MLAs disqualified?

Karnataka Assembly elections, held in May 2018, had produced a hung assembly – with the BJP winning 104 seats, Congress 80 seats and the JD(S) 37 seats. The result was followed by a highly-dramatic couple of weeks, where BS Yediyurappa (popularly called BSY) could not prove his majority in the 224-member Assembly, and resigned after sitting in the chief minister’s chair for three days.

Meanwhile, the Congress and JD(S) forged an alliance and staked claim to form the government, which JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy as chief minister.

However, the drama was far from over.

Just over a year after the Congress-JD(S) government came to power, in July 2019, 17 MLAs quit the Assembly, ostensibly because they were unhappy with the coalition government. The development was the epitome of theatrics in Indian politics, occupying the lion’s share of air time on TV news channels.

The resignations were seen as the BJP’s attempt to topple the coalition government, and hence the Congress-JD(S) camp sought the disqualification of the rebel MLAs and a bar on their contesting elections.

On July 23, the 17 MLAs abstained from voting and the Congress-JD(S) government collapsed during the Trust Vote. The BJP seized the opportunity and staked claim to form the government with BSY as the chief minister.

Meanwhile, Speaker Ramesh Kumar disqualified the 17 rebel MLAs from the Assembly and barred them from contesting polls. It is this decision of the Speaker that the MLAs had appealed against in the Supreme Court.

What will be the ramifications of the SC decision on Karnataka politics?

In allowing the 17 rebel MLAs to contest elections, the Supreme Court has paved the way for them to partake in the December 5 bypolls. Welcoming the verdict, BSY said, “Tomorrow onwards, we are going to go to all assembly constituencies. We are going to win all the 17 seats 101%.”

Elections will not take place in two of the 17 vacant seats  — Rajarajeshwari Nagar and Maski — where separate election petitions challenging the results of the 2018 elections are pending in Karnataka High Court.

Except for Roshan Baig, the 16 rebel MLAs joined the BJP on November 14.

As of now, BSY has the support of 106 MLAs including one Independent, while the Congress-JD(S) combine has 101. The Karnataka Assembly has 224 seats, with 17 vacancies, bringing the halfway mark down to 104.    

The BJP will have to win at least six of the 15 seats headed for bypolls (at least 7 of the 17 seats) to maintain its majority.

It is noteworthy that currently there are 14 vacancies in the council of ministers, which BSY intends to fill by accommodating the rebel MLAs, if they contest the bypolls and win. However, BSY is facing opposition from the BJP cadre  — including from many in the party’s central leadership — over the kind of leeway being offered to the Congress and JD-S turncoats in order to save the Yediyurappa government, The Indian Express has reported.

Another factor is the friction between the Congress and the JD(S), which was visible when their alliance was in power, and was more pronounced when the strength of the alliance was tested. The BJP can benefit from this, getting the required numbers for a complete majority from the JD(S), which has been caught flirting with the saffron party lately.

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