Women's Reservation Bill is a game changer in India’s political landscape

Modi has launched several women-centric government programmes such as Ujjwala, Swachh Bharat, Jan Dhan, Matru Vandana, and MUDRA schemes since he took over as the Prime Minister in 2014

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to achieve what none of his predecessors could do since 1996 – get the Women's Reservation Bill approved by Parliament. In the evening of the first day of the five-day special session of Parliament, the Union Cabinet, headed by Modi, cleared the bill that intends to provide 33 percent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

The bill is widely seen as a gamechanger in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections though reports suggested that if passed it will come into effect only in the 2029 parliamentary polls after the next exercise of delimitation of constituencies is taken up in 2026. The bill also envisages a sub-quota for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in proportion to their existing share.

Missed Opportunity In 2010

However, these are mere technicalities. Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will obviously seek to take credit for the passage of the bill that continuously faced hurdles after being introduced for the first time in 1996. Similar attempts were made in 1998, 1999 and then in 2008 when it came closest to getting Parliament's approval.

The Rajya Sabha in 2010 passed the bill but it never came to the Lok Sabha since then. Once a bill is passed in the Rajya Sabha which is a House in continuity, it does not lapse and remains alive till the Lok Sabha clears it.

On Monday, the Union Cabinet is said to have approved a fresh bill with certain changes to the previous one. That means it will have to once again go through the entire process of getting the nod from both the Houses of Parliament.

Bipartisan Support Assured

The ruling side is confident this time. The Congress is already in favour of the proposed legislation. Both Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) chairperson Sonia Gandhi and former party chief Rahul Gandhi have been consistently pushing for the proposed legislation after the BJP came to power in 2014.

In fact, the Congress went into an overdrive to claim credit for the proposed legislation, insisting that the landmark move is the brainchild of the grand old party that had also introduced quotas for women in local bodies. Its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), said the first woman Prime Minister and the first woman President were from the Congress.

Many key regional parties too have extended their support to the bill. It will be very difficult for any political outfit to oppose the move that empowers women who constitute about 50 percent of India’s population.

Will INDIA Bloc See A Rift?

Modi’s move could drive a wedge in the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc as some constituents, including the Janata Dal (United), Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), had vehemently opposed the bill last time.

These parties had demanded quota within quota for women belonging to the backward classes and minorities, as they feared that the quota would be appropriated by upper caste women.

The recently formed opposition grouping could see a divide on the issue if these parties persist with their demand and oppose the bill. However, they face higher political risks this time in view of the increased participation of women in the democratic process.

The increased participation is particularly true for UP and Bihar. Antagonising the women who are seen as a vast political constituency now could prove electorally counterproductive for them.

PM’s Outreach To Women

Modi has launched several women-centric government programmes such as Ujjwala, Swachh Bharat, Jan Dhan, Matru Vandana, and MUDRA schemes since he took over as the Prime Minister in 2014.  In terms of optics as well, the message is aptly articulated. Take for example, his interaction with the 120-odd women scientists of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) soon after the successful Chandrayaan-3 mission. He specifically lauded them for their role in the success of India’s maiden lunar landing project.

Prior to that on Raksha Bandhan, his government announced a Rs 200 cut in the cost of cooking gas cylinders, a move that will directly benefit 33 crore women who have liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) connections.

Unlike the other contentious issues such as one nation-one poll, uniform civil code or replacing the name India with Bharat, the women’s bill has the potential of being an election winning move. There was also a speculation that the Prime Minister might prepone the Lok Sabha elections to convert his prevailing popularity into another term for him.

Modi’s 2024 Poll Strategy

Though the implementation of the proposed legislation might take time, Modi is expected to enforce it within the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha elections, hoping to cash in on the goodwill among the women voters. He is known for denying tickets to many sitting lawmakers since his Gujarat days and this time again one-third of sitting Lok Sabha members are expected to be dropped, thus paving the way for newcomers, a majority of whom could be women.

The move will also put the political parties in a spot as finding the requisite number of winnable women candidates will be a tough task for them. This will result in senior politicians manipulating the ticket distribution for their kin.

That said, the veil of secrecy around the ongoing special session, described by Modi as a short but historic one, had kept all on tenterhooks so much so that Union minister Prahlad Singh Patel within minutes of posting on X, congratulating the Prime Minister on the landmark decision at the Union Cabinet meeting, deleted it. The action has now shifted to Parliament.

Aurangzeb Naqshbandi is a senior journalist who has been covering the Congress for 15 years, and is currently associated with Pixstory. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.