Will Turkey’s expanding military footprint constitute a challenge for India in 2021?

Recently, quoting a Greek journalist, the Indian media reported that Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdoğan was planning to send some 2,000 Syrian jihadists to Kashmir. This is probably an exaggeration, given that there is no dearth of jihadists in South Asia who can infiltrate into Kashmir.

However, given the spate of Turkish interventions recently in conflict zones far and wide, it is not impossible that Turkey may in 2021 instigate conflict in South Asia, which may necessitate dispatching some militants here.

Take the recent conflict in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan could win back parts of territory it had lost to Armenia more than two decades ago in large parts because of Turkish military assistance. It was a win for both sides because the victory consolidated the rule of President Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan, while earning Turkey much-needed financial resources — Azerbaijan’s defence procurement from Turkey in 2020 was $123 million.

Recently, while in Baku to celebrate the victory, Erdoğan described Ankara's support for Azerbaijan as part of Turkey's quest for its “deserved place in the world order.” If regaining former (Ottoman) glory is one driver of Turkey's current foreign policy, then the quest for resources is another.

A plummeting Turkish lira and a weakening economy compels Turkey to seek newer markets and investments. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, a major market for Turkish exports, has announced a trade boycott of Turkey. Other Gulf states may follow, angered by Erdogan’s rhetoric following moves by them to normalise ties with Israel, even as Turkey seeks to improve its relations with the former. Added to that is the recently-imposed United States sanctions and the spectre of European Union sanctions.

Since Azerbaijan is a major investor in the Turkish economy, Ankara had a major interest in the conflict which also gave it a foothold in the Southern Caucasus and enabled it to conclude a deal with Russia in Northern Syria.

Turkey's other successes are also rooted in conflict, given its advantage in military technology and know-how as a NATO member. In Libya, Turkish intervention helped the Government of National Accord retain control and force the opposing bloc into a ceasefire. It also won Turkey Libyan support for its claims on the resources of the Eastern Mediterranean, where it is pitted against countries such as Greece and Cyprus, as well as a major defence deal with Qatar, with which ties also burgeoned during the Arab Spring and the intra-GCC rift in 2017.

Therefore Turkey may have an interest in dragging countries into broader sectarian tensions. This trend was visible in the Turkish media during the recent communal tensions in France. It paid off to an extent, as countries such as Kuwait began boycotting French products, Turkish supplies quickly stepped in to fill the gap.

Coming to South Asia, Turkey has made no pretence that it is seeking to play a role by raking up Kashmir, reminiscing about the region's historical ties with the Ottoman Empire, reaching out to communities on ideological grounds, and keeping up a constant tirade against India in the Turkish media. Ideology is a cover for what makes good economic and military sense.

Pakistan and Bangladesh offer good markets for Turkish goods. With religious ideology as an anchor, Turkey has significantly boosted arms sales to Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Turkish troops are stationed in Afghanistan, and along with Qatar it supports the Taliban. Turkey has also been reaching out to Bangladesh, and trying to promote military sales.

Provoking conflicts and power projection abroad is a good way to boost defence deals and win lucrative contracts which helps the struggling Turkish economy. This in turn keeps the ruling AKP Party in power. Such conflicts use foreign mercenaries that Turkey has nurtured and used in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan; it helps to both eliminate them and remove them from Turkey's proximity, and also absolves Turkey of any responsibility.

With the Islamic State- Khorasan Province getting a foothold in Afghanistan, it is more likely that these mercenaries may at some point of time be dispatched there.

All of this is in India's neighbourhood. Complicating matters is Turkey's considerable soft power in the region and increasingly close ties with China. Much like China's, Turkey's increasing footprint abroad is turning out to be a major disruptive factor for both West and South Asia.

This is a new challenge that India should be prepared for in 2021.