Why have Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh responded differently to Narendra Modi's appeal?

PM Narendra Modi had cast his vote during phase 2 of Gujarat elections. (Image: Twitter/File)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it a point at every rally to urge voters to give a record haul of seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to mark 27 years of BJP rule in Gujarat so that he can continue his work in Delhi.

So emotional was his appeal that a wave of sorts enabled the BJP achieve a record-breaking victory, winning 156 of the 182 assembly seats in the state. But when Modi tried a similar emotional appeal and sought to strike a chord with the voters in Himachal Pradesh, they seemed to be not as enthusiastic as voters in Gujarat. Rather, they preferred the Congress over the BJP, which was in power for the last five years.

Even if Modi is the BJP's best bet to attract votes, there seemed to be certain preconditions for his appeal to work.

Modi's campaign is not of big help in situations where there is a spike in factionalism within the BJP and senior leaders cannot bury their hatchet for the sake of elections. Also, Modi cannot retrieve the situation for the BJP when its rivals like the Congress come up with such tall electoral promises including the return of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) at the cost of good economics.

True, Modi's connection with Gujarat voters is much stronger than with the voters in Himachal Pradesh. Nevertheless, Modi made his appeal to the Himachal Pradesh voters.

Modi made an appeal at a rally in Solan ahead of the November 12 election. He said: “You don’t have to remember who the BJP candidate is. It can be anyone. Simply remember the lotus…If you see ‘kamal ka phool’ while casting your vote, understand that this is the BJP, this is Modi who has come to you. Your every vote for ‘kamal ka phool’ will come directly to Modi’s account as a blessing.”

However, the voters in Himachal Pradesh, perhaps, knew how to distinguish between the assembly polls and the Lok Sabha elections. So they decided that they must give the chance to the Congress to come to power — because of its promises like the OPS, better deal for the apple crop, and a great measure of goodies.

In terms of popular vote, however, the Congress managed to get less than one percent of votes more than the BJP. But it got translated into a higher number of seats for the former to form the next government.

That is why these elections have shown the limitations as well as the advantages of a Modi-led campaign in the assembly polls. Modi does enjoy a far greater trust, loyalty, and an almost cult-like following in Gujarat, which is his home state. After all, he was Chief Minister for 13 years before he moved to Delhi to become Prime Minister on the strength of his creating a ‘Gujarat model’ of governance. So when Modi chose to criss-cross Gujarat, addressing numerous rallies, road shows, and connecting with the voters far and near, the BJP got a big boost.

A year ago, Modi chose to replace Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani with a greenhorn, Bhupendra Patel. A number of other ministers were also replaced and fresh faces inducted. This helped in cutting down on the anti-incumbency factors working against the BJP government. So when Modi went on appealing to voters to give a record fresh mandate to the party, he was not dealing with a number of factors that had bedevilled the previous leadership.

Modi wanted to show that the highest number of 149 seats secured by the Congress under Madhavsinh Solanki in 1985 was on the basis of a crafted social-political alliance called KHAM (Kshartriyas, Harijans, Adivasis, and Muslims).

The BJP has secured a record by winning 156 of the 182 seats on the basis of a development agenda. Modi, while speaking after the victory, said, that the BJP won "because the BJP has managed to secure votes beyond the rural-urban divide or caste arithmetic”.

Modi's aggressive campaign for the BJP saw a less-active Congress and an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which just could not match the BJP’s momentum. Weeks of hype about AAP's ability to eat into votes of the BJP in urban areas seemed to lose fervour. Interestingly, the voters of Gujarat rejected Arvind Kejriwal’s freebie formula. Their entrepreneurial instincts warned them about the conventional wisdom that there are no free lunches.

Unlike in Gujarat where there was a lot of planning and management to back up Modi's campaign, Himachal Pradesh presented a different scenario.

Incumbent Chief Minister Jairam Thakur's style of functioning had left many BJP leaders in displeasure. Thakur was rather seen as a nominee of BJP national president JP Nadda charged with the task of containing the influence of those close to former Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, who is father of Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur. Nadda's decision not to patch up the Dhumal camp saw the latter's supporters turning against the official BJP candidates.

Therefore, Modi's campaign could not make up for these issues though his efforts may have boosted the BJP to some extent.