Vasundhara Raje’s last gamble

Despite being the BJP's poster girl since 2003, when she led the party to a clear majority in Rajasthan for the first time, Raje has found herself in a tough spot recently.

The assembly by-elections in Rajasthan are just days away, but the public response to the Bharatiya Janata Party's campaign has been only slightly more than lukewarm. The BJP's woes are compounded by the conspicuous absence of former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje from the electoral fray, fuelling rumours of deepening discord within the state unit.

The by-elections for seven assembly seats are considered a crucial test for Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma and his government. Having been in power for over 11 months, the by-elections on November 13 seem like an annual exam for the Bhajan-BJP administration, especially given the setback in the Lok Sabha battle.

Missing ‘Rani’

Strangely, the BJP’s biggest crowd-puller in the state, Vasundhara Raje, is nowhere to be seen. Ever since she was denied the chief ministerial chair after the last assembly polls, BJP insiders claim the two-time CM has felt sidelined.

Despite being the BJP's poster girl since 2003, when she led the party to a clear majority in Rajasthan for the first time, Raje has found herself in a tough spot recently. Marginalised by party bosses, she has largely kept silent and often skipped party events this year.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, although she was on the BJP’s list of star campaigners, Raje campaigned only in her son Dushyant's constituency, making her displeasure obvious. The BJP was jolted by the results, as the Congress and its INDIA Alliance secured 11 seats while the BJP had hoped to repeat its third straight clean sweep of 25 seats. Raje's aloofness was widely seen as a crucial factor in this sharp decline, barely five months after the BJP regained power in Rajasthan.

Damage Control Underway?

A recent statement by BJP state in-charge Radha Mohan Das Agrawal regarding Raje’s role has ignited a fresh wave of speculation.

Emphasising her enduring influence in Rajasthan politics, Agrawal asserted, “Raje has served as Rajasthan’s CM twice and has brought transformative changes to the state. She remains a highly popular leader, and her role in Rajasthan politics will always continue.”

Agrawal’s remarks have stirred the political pot, as the strained relationship between Raje and the BJP top brass is hardly a state secret. Most experts view his comments as either an attempt to encourage Raje to campaign in the by-elections or to placate her into not embarrassing the party during the election period. Others wonder whether Agrawal’s statements signal that the BJP’s central leadership is trying to appease Raje.

It’s worth recalling some of Raje’s own statements in recent months. Soon after the Lok Sabha results in June, Raje highlighted the growing lack of loyalty in current politics, remarking, “There was a time when people were grateful to mentors. But in today’s politics, people often try to cut the finger by which they learnt to walk.” Later, in July, she criticised the rising arrogance among party leaders, stating, “Arrogance comes with posts, but those are temporary. It's only by taking everyone along that one’s stature rises, which is permanent.”

More recently, in September, Raje stressed the need to stay grounded, saying, “Some who acquire brass nose rings start believing they have become jewellery traders.” Though she didn’t name anyone, these statements seem to be a thinly veiled critique of state BJP leaders who, having risen to key posts since the last assembly polls, have distanced themselves from Raje.

A Cornered Satrap

Raje’s problems with the BJP top brass, especially the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo, are well-known. She had no role in selecting BJP candidates for the by-elections, and given the frictions, many in Rajasthan were surprised at her name circulating for the BJP National President position in recent months.

As the by-election battle peaks, the Bhajan Lal administration faces a tough task. Though enthused by the Haryana win, the BJP government’s performance in Rajasthan over the past year has been lacklustre. A month after regaining power last December, the BJP lost the Karanpur assembly seat. Now, there is significant buzz that CM Bhajan Lal may be in trouble if most by-elections are lost following the modest Lok Sabha showing.

With a proud lineage and enduring mass appeal, Raje is clearly unwilling to become a ‘Marg-darshak’ just yet and opt for retirement. Unlike Shivraj Singh and Raman Singh, who have reconciled with the Modi-Shah duo, Raje remains a regional satrap, much like Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, who has refused to bow down to the BJP top brass.

While the party High Command wants Raje to help boost BJP prospects, the Raje camp calculates that setbacks to the Bhajan brigade could help bring the sidelined ‘Rani’ back to the centrestage. The outcome of the November 13 by-polls will have great significance for Raje’s political future and her dreams of a grand comeback.