US-India 2+2 Summit: Biden-Modi ministers have much to discuss

Indian PM Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden. (File image)

The United States and India embarked upon the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in 2018 and have regularly held it every year since then. The summit replaced the Strategic and Commercial Dialogue that had commenced under the Obama administration. Essentially, the 2+2 format was an outcome of an agreement between President  Trump and Prime Minister  Modi when both nations had agreed upon such a summit during PM Modi's visit to the United States in June 2017.

The meetings have included discussions on strategic and security issues between the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense on the US side, and their Indian counterparts – Minister of External Affairs and Minister of Defence. The dialogue enables the US and India to understand and appreciate each other’s strategic concerns taking cognisance of the political compulsions on both sides. The 2+2 summit has invariably deliberated and negotiated on areas of concern between the United States and India with an intent to improve and further strengthen the bilateral bonds.

The 2+2 meeting this year taking place in New Delhi comes in the backdrop of the much discussed Quad Summit expected to be held in India in January 2024, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin attending the 2+2 meetings with the Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. Given the massive bilateral synergies, along with a tumultuous geopolitical landscape – there is much to be discussed.

Geopolitical  Puzzles 

Even though some global conflicts go beyond the direct realm of the US-India relationship, they do form a backdrop that adversely impacts the geopolitical dynamics. Efforts to create an equitable international order that both the US and India believe in, thus will be crucial during the summit.

Discussions on the strife between Israel and Hamas and the resultant humanitarian crisis in Palestine are highly likely. The Russia-Ukraine war is far from over with its significant geopolitical ramifications as well as adverse impact on oil supply and food chains. There is bound to be reference to this long-drawn war as well.

Additionally, the India-Canada relationship may be raised during the summit as India would like to ascertain the US response to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations about India’s role in  the killing of the Khalistani separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The US is likely to stick to its line that India must cooperate with the Canadian investigations in consonance with standard global conventions.

China Question

The world has witnessed China’s use of military, economic and diplomatic coercion to expand its influence. China would invariably feature in discussions given its ongoing geopolitical posturing.

In recent years, China has increased its military manoeuvring in the resource-rich and biogeographic Indo-Pacific region including the Indian Ocean and the central and western Pacific Ocean, as well as the South China Sea.

No wonder, the US and India are also expected to discuss the Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, as well as the Pacific region. Both nations are likely to propel their collaboration to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region which is safe, prosperous and resilient.

Bilateral Cooperation

The focus in defense cooperation for US-India is currently largely on technology transfer and co-manufacturing, underlining the importance of innovation in furthering military capabilities. The agenda for the summit is likely to include the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) as well as the India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X).

Some areas of common interest in the space programme may also get discussed, as well as ongoing collaboration between NASA and ISRO on select missions. The need to step up climate action as a precursor to COP28 may also come up for discussion.

Such discussions often find boundaries defined by the scope and terms of reference getting blurred. The 2+2 discussions may also include the climate crisis, anti-terrorism measures, healthcare issues, visa irritants, higher education cooperation.

While the Indian general elections and the US federal elections, both scheduled in 2024, are essentially each country’s internal affairs, they may be the underlying drivers behind defining specific priorities for both the nations.

This summit would be preparatory ground for President Biden's likely visit to New Delhi for the Quad summit, and India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2024 where he has been invited as Chief Guest.  The 2+2 summit in New Delhi would hopefully help build a stronger and holistic relationship between the US and India in an ever-evolving and complex global environment.

Regardless, as far as global diplomacy is concerned, such a high-level and on-going engagement is invariably indicative of a robust partnership between nations.

Jayant Krishna is a senior fellow with the Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication