Siddaramaiah’s political stock rises after Congress sweeps bye-elections in Karnataka

The Karnataka bye-elections result has come as a shot in the arm for Siddaramaiah.

Emboldened by the clean sweep in the three bye-elections, Karnataka’s chief minister Siddaramaiah is now taking the battle to the Gowda heartland of Hassan on December 5. He has organised a mammoth public meeting called “Swambhimani Samavesha” meaning pride/honour rally.

Siddaramaiah who had to go through a lot of trouble in the last four months in connection with allegations of his wife acquiring several plots in Mysore, feels that the poll results have shown that he is still the most popular leader in the state and wants to teach a lesson to his enemies, the Gowdas, whom he holds responsible for his troubles.

Gowdas’ political stock sinks

With the Union cabinet minister H D Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy losing to Congress’ CP Yogesshwara by over 25,000 votes in the high voltage Channapatna by polls, the Gowda clan is going through the most painful period of their existence in recent years. The ruling Congress has also won Sandur and Shiggaon. In Shiggaon Congress’ Yasir Khan Pathan has defeated former BJP chief minister and current MP Basavaraj Bommai’s son Bharath, strengthening Siddaramaiah’s hands. The Congress has retained Sandur.

The victory is significant for many reasons. The ruling Congress has won the seats in three different regions of Karnataka - Old Mysore, Hyderabad Karnataka (now known as Kalyana Karnataka) and Mumbai Karnataka (now known as Kittur Karnataka) sending out a strong message to the BJP/JDS opposition alliance.

Siddaramaiah emerges stronger

Before the by elections, the rumours of Siddaramaiah stepping down as the CM were abound. The BJP/JDS combine had unleashed an all-out attack on Siddaramaiah whom they consider the last man standing between them and the power in Karnataka.

A powerful faction led by his deputy and Karnataka Congress president DK Shivakumar was also dreaming about replacing him.

There was a serious debate about whether Siddaramaiah should continue till the end of this term in May 2028.

People close to Shivakumar were even talking about the power sharing deal clinched with Siddaramaiah after the big win in May 2023 Assembly elections. According to some insiders, Siddaramaiah had agreed to step down after two and a half years in office to make way for Shivakumar. The entire Congress top brass is mum about this and they feign ignorance in public.

The bye-elections result has come as a shot in the arm for Siddaramaiah. Speaking to this journalist he said that his detractors should now keep quiet as the people have once again reposed their faith in him.

The bypoll results have also strengthened Shivakumar as he led the party in the elections. But he is not in a position to demand the CM chair in immediate future.

AHINDA consolidation

Political pundits are crediting the big win to consolidation of AHINDA - Minorities, Backward Classes, SC/STs- who are considered the main vote bank of Siddaramaiah and Congress. They argue that BJP and Gowdas relentless attack on Siddaramaiah was seen as an attack on a backward class leader by the upper caste Lingayat and Vokkaligas. It led to the mobilisation of AHINDA in favour of Congress to halt the upper caste march in its tracks.

Siddaramaiah is frank about this. He openly attacks the BJP and JDS for trying to destabilise the government headed by a backward caste leader.

It is no secret that both the Congress and BJP/JDS have spent huge money in the bypolls. “Money power favoured the Congress” argument does not hold much water in Karnataka.

Ahead of the Winter session of the Assembly scheduled to be held in Belagavi in the third week of December, Siddaramaiah needed a big win to put the opposition on the mat. The voters have just delivered that victory.

Focus now should be on governance

In the last six months, there was an inertia and the governance had come to a standstill. People and the business community in particular hope that Siddaramaiah would now focus on development.

His mercurial industries, commerce and infrastructure minister MB Patil is touring Europe and America to get some big investments ahead of the Global Investors Meet (GIM) scheduled to be held in mid-February, 2025.

The alleged land scam case is still hanging over his head, but the bypolls show has mitigated it. Legal experts feel that the case is weak and may not yield the desired result for the BJP/Gowdas.

Siddaramaiah, a great political survivor seems to have survived yet another attack on him.