Rahul Yatra: Congress’s political strategy faces too many constraints for a successful execution

The yatra is unlikely to be a gamechanger

From mid-January to mid-March, Rahul Gandhi will undertake the Bharat Jodo Nyay yatra as the Congress’ signature ground-level mobilisation before the 2024 elections. The yatra would cover 14 states spanning around 100 Lok Sabha seats. Importantly, it would also set the party’s overarching electoral narrative.

Therefore, let us turn to the central question: What is the political strategy underlying the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra?

The Ideological, Electoral Strategies

To answer the question, let’s divide political strategy into two components: ideological and electoral.

With the Nyay Yatra, it becomes clear now that the central ideological plank of the Congress’ for the 2024 elections is social justice. The party’s communication chief Jairam Ramesh explained the purpose of the east-west yatra in terms of its complementarity with the earlier Bharat Jodo yatra. While the Bharat Jodo yatra raised the issues of political authoritarianism and socio-economic discrimination, the ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay’ is geared to achieve (in the words of Ramesh) the constitutional ideals of political, social and economic justice.

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Thus, the yatra seeks to discursively frame the Congress party (and Rahul Gandhi) as the ‘answer’ to the pressing problems faced by Bharat. Starting the yatra from Manipur, devastated from a long communal conflagration, is meant to underline this point.

What about the electoral strategy?

Given its timing on the heels of the election, the yatra ought to be closely tied to a viable electoral strategy. Specific political issues would have to be raised, not just abstract rhetoric. Further, and more importantly, tangible solutions need to be provided. In other words, a concrete party platform requires to be constructed.

The likely components of this party platform appear to be: one, security promises for ethnic and religious minorities; two, a distinct welfare/entitlements programme for the tribals and Dalits, and three, a caste census for the OBCs. These components can be gleaned not just from the Congress’ recent high profile Nagpur rally, but also from the route of the yatra.

In the Nagpur rally, speaking from Ambedkar’s ‘Karam Bhoomi’, Rahul Gandhi set forth a ‘declaration of intent’ as a sort of prologue to the yatra. In particular, he warned of the dangers of a new ‘kingly’ order, reversing the hard-won entitlements ensured to marginalised communities from the constitutional order.

Meanwhile, the route of the yatra illuminates the respective components of the strategy. In the long stretch from North east to Chhattisgarh, Congress would seek to mobilise ethnic and religious minorities (such as Christian tribals) harbouring insecurity over majoritarian violence. Similarly, in Araria and Poornia in Bihar, Murshidabad in Bengal, and Bareilly and Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress would attempt to rekindle its voting base among Muslims. In these states, the Congress would also look to reinforce the perception that it still commands a minimal loyal base. Hence, spectacles of popular groundswell emanating from key social constituencies become crucial to its negotiating position of wrangling for a respectable number of seats from stronger state partners.

Targeting Tribal Voters

The second component might perhaps be a welfare/entitlements programme targeted at the tribal communities. This could possibly be the Congress’ biggest mobilisation of tribals in its recent history. The ‘tribal factor’ can be gauged from the considerable span of days reserved for states such as Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Assam, cumulatively comprising nearly half of the time-period of the yatra. It can also be gauged from the specific tribal heavy route undertaken, such as the Western highlands of Orissa, instead of say the coastal districts, and the Northern tips of Bengal.

Also Read | Congress yatra to hold dialogue with people on economic inequalities, caste census, unemployment: Kharge

The Congress has repeatedly struggled over the last decade at stanching the flow of tribal voters towards the BJP camp. In the recent Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh elections, the Congress faced a tribal backlash over unmet expectations from their respective state Congress governments. In Assam and Bengal, the economically marginalised tea-tribe workers, a traditional Congress base, have shifted their votes almost whole-sale to the saffron block. One can also mention here the NYAY minimum income guarantee floated by the Congress just before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which proved to be a dud. The scheme was targeted at the bottom fifth of the population by income. As the joke went, the poor political conception and communication design underlying the scheme meant that the ‘revolutionary’ promise reached only the ears of those indisposed to its profligacy rather than its putative beneficiaries, such as under-privileged Dalit and tribal voters.

Can the Congress use the NYAY yatra now to mobilise the tribals on a specific socio-economic programme? The tribals are, of course, not a monolith and the yatra would provide the Congress an opportune moment to construct a political programme based on popular demands emerging from varied tribal communities in different states. For example, the issues of land and forest resources in Orissa and Chhattisgarh, the reservations clamour in Jharkhand, and dwindling economic opportunities in Assam. The Congress’ needs to provide tangible solutions and guarantees on each of these fronts.

Caste Census Agenda

Finally, the yatra might allow the Congress to take national ownership of the caste census agenda. This component might dominate the stretch from Uttar Pradesh to Maharashtra, via Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. Alongside, the Congress can also make here a stronger play for Dalit voters, using the appeal of its President Mallikarjun Kharge, who launched the yatra’s tagline ‘Nyay ka haq milne tak’. Kharge can be especially deployed in regions of Western Uttar Pradesh and Northern Maharashtra, exploiting the space opened up by a declining BSP and VBA/NCP respectively.

In a 2022 India Today national survey, 55 percent respondents had claimed that the NDA policies had primarily benefited big businesses to the neglect of the more under-privileged sections of the population. Can the Congress reach these sections through the caste census agenda? It might be difficult to do so if the caste census merely represents a rhetorical counterpoint to the BJP’s Hindu nationalism. However, the caste census does have the potential to assume a potent electoral logic if it can also represent a ‘new deal’ (in terms of a concrete economic programme) to those who feel they have been left behind from the NDA’s model of development.

Can this political strategy be successfully executed by the Congress? There are many constraints. Elections are only a few months away. The party faces the mighty NDA electoral machine, in the midst of the huge Ram Temple mobilisation, and recalcitrant allies further emboldened by the Congress’ recent defeats. Given the context, the chances of success look slim. Perhaps, the NYAY yatra might do well to solicit the prayers of the people it encounters on its journey.

Asim Ali is a political researcher. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.