Maharashtra changes the dynamics between Modi and not just the opposition, but also allies

In the Winter session of the parliament, PM Modi’s party- and the NDA it leads- will now breathe easier.

By Anand K. Sahay 

The hands-down win in the Assembly polls of the BJP-helmed Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra is likely to strengthen the saffron party nationally, given the state’s political and financial heft in the larger scheme of things, and also help it see off sniper attacks from the opposition. The spectacular electoral outcome may also be expected to permit the BJP to set the national economic agenda untrammelled.

BJP will face Parliament’s Winter session with confidence

In parliament, where the Winter session is due to commence on Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party- and the NDA it leads- will now breathe easier. On the Adani affair, in which both civil and criminal proceedings are ongoing in the US against the billionaire, the BJP will have a firmer political base from which to deal with adversaries, although the poll result does not take away from the merits of the case.

Had the Maharashtra result gone the other way, the BJP is likely to have been caught in a cleft stick in spite of winning handily in Haryana recently. The handing of Mumbai’s massive Dharavi slum development project to an Adani enterprise would in such an event have been the subject of greater criticism than has so far been the case.

The result in Jharkhand, at the other end of the country, has turned out a mirror opposite of Maharashtra, with the INDIA parties, led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), trouncing the BJP and its allies. More, by coming back for a second consecutive term, which no previous state CM has been able to do, Hemant Soren has pushed back the BJP-RSS agenda which has of late focused much attention on depicting Muslims as infiltrators, a trend in recent times set by PM Modi himself while campaigning in the last Lok Sabha poll.

The Jharkhand result can have a storm-breaker effect on the BJP’s larger ambitions. In this regard the capacity of the Congress party- which leads the INDIA group in parliament- to guide the alliance and set the opposition agenda would doubtless be of crucial importance. In Maharashtra the Congress was found wanting in this respect.

MVA drops the ball

The MVA alliance under its leadership seemed to take up issues piecemeal. It even rehashed issues that had worked well for it in the Lok Sabha election in May, in which the MVA was streets ahead of Mahayuti. The difference between the Assembly poll arena and the setting for a parliamentary election was not taken into account.

The Congress didn’t seek to persuade the Maha Vikas Aghadi grouping to set a counter-narrative to the Mahayuti’s claims of a developmental agenda which may be suitable for the different regions of the large-sized state with variegated features, including having extensive zones of deprivation that compare with parts of the country where development indices are low.

After the Lok Sabha polls in the summer, the BJP had been bruised pretty badly. Besides suffering a debilitating loss in numbers, it had to countenance the suddenly risen stature of the Congress party as well as the INDIA alliance led by the party. That advantage that accrued to the Congress is likely to diminish after the Maharashtra result.

NDA’s intra-coalition dynamics may change

In the Lok Sabha election the BJP had suffered politically in the eyes of its own ranks, and in relation to its coalition allies it needed to proceed with greater sensitivity than before. This particular aspect of the intra-coalition dynamics may now be expected to be pushed back.

In the current political atmosphere- and quite possibly in setting the national agenda in the remainder of the third term of the Modi-dominated NDA- it is not just Modi’s political adversaries but also his allies in the NDA coalition who may be expected to feel the impact of the changed atmosphere in Maharashtra. This could possibly imply a renewed thrust to pro-Hindutva policy actions by BJP state governments.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu are now likely to feel the effect of a politically reinvigorated Modi and may find their area of freedom as political actors in their own right somewhat circumscribed.

They may also need to be watchful about the BJP seeking to spread its wings in their respective states. In urban Bihar BJP already has a following that may be expected to consolidate after Modi regains the footing he had partly surrendered after the Lok Sabha poll.

By-polls present a nuanced picture

From the BJP’s perspective, whatever the impact of the state poll in Maharahtra, it needs to be considered that in opposition-administered West Bengal and Karnataka, the ruling Trinamool Congress and the Congress respectively have won all the Assembly by-elections, six under the leadership of CM Mamata Banerjee and three under CM Siddaramaiah. While the intensity of the BJP presence had reduced in Bengal in recent elections, it appeared to gain somewhat after the RG Kar Medical College rape-cum-murder case. The by-election results will dampen BJP’s spirits. In Karnataka, the BJP is an influential entity but was unable to cut it in the by-elections. That is likely to hurt its local prestige.

In the by-election for the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in Kerala, the Congress candidate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has notched a win by a margin that is likely to be remembered for long. The Left, in somewhat declining mode in the state, and the BJP which is seen by some as being somewhat ascendant, have both suffered as a result.

On balance, as a consequence of the wholly changed situation in Maharashtra the BJP’s political edge nationally is hard to dismiss, although it is not despair time for its opponents. But the latter need to marshal their faculties better.

Anand Sahay is a senior journalist and a political commentator.