Locust invasion threat demands India-Pakistan co-operation

Diplomacy must depoliticise locust management, treating it as a humanitarian imperative.

By Rakshith Shetty and Keerthi Shree 

In 2020, India faced its worst locust invasion in 27 years, with swarms destroying over 50,000 hectares of cropland across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Maharashtra. This occurred amid the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbating crises for a population where 42.3% rely on agriculture as their primary occupation. As climate change intensifies erratic weather patterns, such as unseasonal rainfall, extreme temperatures, and shifting wind patterns, these disruptions alter key indicators like soil moisture and humidity, creating ideal breeding conditions for locusts. India must adopt a dual strategy: strengthening domestic preparedness while reviving cross-border cooperation with Pakistan. The stakes are too high for political deadlock to hinder ecological survival.

Lessons from the 2020 Attacks

During the May 2020 locust invasion, which entered India months earlier than usual due to unseasonal cyclonic rains, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab exposed systemic vulnerabilities. Swarms originating in Iran and Pakistan ravaged crops like cotton, pulses, and vegetables, threatening a loss of Rs 15,000 crore. The Locust Warning Organisation (LWO) scrambled to deploy 89 fire brigades, 810 tractor-mounted sprayers, and drones for pesticide dispersal. Despite treating 47,308 hectares, voracious swarms outpaced containment, infiltrating urban areas such as Jaipur and Gurugram. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) noted that a single square-kilometre swarm consumes as much food as 35,000 people daily.

Sectors at Risk and the Need for Innovation

Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable due to their lack of capacity to manage such incidents. In 2020, Rajasthan reported 33% crop damage across 2,235 hectares, while Madhya Pradesh lost 4,400 hectares. These losses disrupt supply chains, inflate food prices, and jeopardise nutrition for millions. While the government allocated Rs 14 crore for Rajasthan's relief and imported 60 UK-made sprayers, reliance on chemical pesticides like Malathion poses environmental risks. Transitioning to biopesticides and integrating geospatial technologies could enhance sustainability.

India-Pakistan Cooperation Imperative

Historical data reveals that 80% of India's infestations originate in Pakistan's Balochistan and Sindh regions. During the 2019-2021 upsurge, Pakistan's delayed control measures allowed residual swarms to breach Rajasthan by April 2020. However, India and Pakistan have a history of cooperation: from 2005-2019, technical teams held biannual border meetings under FAO auspices, exchanging data on swarm trajectories and pesticide use. Even during the 2019 Pulwama attack, locust officers convened discreetly. Unfortunately, this mechanism frayed in 2020 when Pakistan skipped a critical June meeting at Munabao, citing political tensions.

Such brinkmanship is counterproductive. The 2020 invasion highlighted how both nations suffer when coordination lapses. Pakistan, which declared a national emergency in February 2020, lost 88,843 square kilometres of cropland, while India's Gujarat and Punjab faced secondary outbreaks in June. FAO-mediated weekly virtual meetings between India, Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan in 2020 helped avert worse damage, demonstrating the efficacy of dialogue. Reviving the Joint Border Committee – which last met in 2019 – is essential for synchronising spray campaigns and sharing GIS-driven swarm maps.

Building a Geospatial Early Warning Network

Advanced monitoring is ineffective without transnational data pipelines. The FAO's eLocust3 system, which relays real-time swarm coordinates via satellite, has been used by India's Locust Warning Organisation (LWO) since 2016. Similarly, the Schistocerca Warning and Management System (SWARMS) and GIS platform aggregate historical data from 1929 onwards, enabling predictive modelling. In 2024, India tested a Doppler radar network that tracks locust movements up to 100 km inland. Independent radar systems are maintained, and alerts for locust movements can be exchanged. The Desert Locust Information Service should serve as a neutral platform for both countries. Without raw radar data, restricted access to locust movement data creates gaps. As proposed under the World Banks's $500 million locust initiative, collaborative geospatial analysis is critical. India and Pakistan should share real-time locust GIS data through satellite imagery, incorporating a joint AI predictive locust movement model. Establishing a joint research centre at the India-Pakistan border and a geospatial research centre is essential. Real-time coordination using the GIS dashboard must be mandatory. Pakistan's surveillance data should be shared with the Indian government to track swarms, enabling the mapping of breeding zones across the Indus Basin and ensuring pre-emptive strikes before swarms escalate.

Conclusion

First, India must operationalise the National Locust Control Centre proposed in 2020, equipping it with AI-driven forecasting tools and a dedicated fleet of spray drones. Second, the Rs 176 crore allocated for locust control in 2024-25 should prioritise regional agreements and fund joint FAO workshops with Pakistani agronomists. Third, adopting eco-friendly control methods, such as India's pilot myco-pesticide trials, can reduce reliance on neurotoxic chemicals.

However, technology alone will not suffice. Diplomacy must depoliticise locust management, treating it as a humanitarian imperative. The 1942 Indo-Persian locust accord set a precedent: ecological crises require solidarity, not sabre-rattling. Climate is the key driver of locust invasions, and India and Pakistan must restart the Joint Technical Committees. GIS tools and remote sensing data should be leveraged for regular monitoring of swarms or breeding spots. This will aid in planning mitigation strategies and building predictive models for swarm migration, supporting data-based decision-making. Drones and AI technology can complement these geospatial capabilities.

Using drones, weather models, and AI predictions to track, forecast, and control locust movements is essential for protecting food security. The alternative – a cycle of mutually assured harvest loss – will only deepen rural distress. The time for joint action is now. India has only one locust breeding season, the summer breeding season (July to October). Spring breeding in Pakistan can lead to swarms entering India earlier than usual, potentially before May or June.

(Rakshith Shetty, Research Analyst, China Desk, The Takshashila Institution. Keerthi Shree, Research Analyst with the Geospatial Programme.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.