KCR faces BJP, AIMIM scare in Hyderabad municipal polls

The Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections are slated to be held on 1 December. The polls have gained a lot of attention nationally due to a high pitch campaign and war of words between Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A list of star campaigners including Amit Shah, J.P. Nadda and Yogi Adityanath have held rallies and road shows to boost BJP’s prospects in the polls.

In 2016, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao’s (KCR) Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) had swept the elections winning 99 out of 150 seats while Owaisi’s AIMIM had bagged 44 seats. BJP had won 4, Congress 2 and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 1 seat.

KCR has lost significant ground after his party’s victory in the 2018 state assembly elections. TRS’s vote share declined from 47.4 percent in 2018 to 41.7 percent in the 2019 general elections. BJP managed to win 4 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with a 19.7 percent vote share. Then, KCR’s daughter Kavitha had lost a prestigious battle in Nizamabad to BJP candidate Dharmapuri Arvind by over 70,000 votes. Recently, TRS lost the Dubbak bypoll to BJP in a close contest. TRS had won the seat in 2018 by a whopping margin of 62,500 votes.

GHMC includes areas falling under Hyderabad and Secunderabad Lok Sabha seats. Hyderabad has a sitting AIMIM MP in Owaisi and Secunderabad a sitting BJP MP. GHMC includes the new (high-tech) as well as the old city (Charminar) regions.

The new city is fairly cosmopolitan with techies from around the country working in the IT sector. The urban voter nationally is an anchor voting segment of the BJP. BJP’s vote share in urban seats was 41.1 percent in the 2019 general elections.

GHMC has a high minority population of 40 percent plus and the old city is a stronghold of the AIMIM. Polarization works here as evident in the 2019 split of the two seats between AIMIM and BJP.

The fiery speeches of AIMIM leaders and spirited counters by BJP have given a communal twist to the election. BJP MLA Raja Singh offered pork biryani to Asaduddin Owaisi after the latter offered beef biryani to BJP leaders visiting Hyderabad.

BJP state president Bandi Sanjay spoke of a surgical strike against Rohingya, Pakistani and Bangladeshi illegal immigrants in Hyderabad declaring that his party will weed them out and deport them. This was countered by Owaisi who taunted BJP by asking if Amit Shah was sleeping and how could he let Rohingya names be added to the voter list.

BJP hopes to get the majority of the Hindu votes which is currently with the TRS. Its strategists feel Hindus would vote for the saffron party to checkmate AIMIM in the city. A split in the minority votes between AIMIM, TRS and Congress could also work in its favour. It is also targeting the 6-8 percent non-Telugu speaking population in the GHMC.

Amidst all this, TRS is missing from the headlines. The party has released a manifesto promising freebies but deep within it fears that polarisation could damage its prospects.

That KCR is feeling the heat is evident from his son KTR’s statement that the party will win on its own, with a “respectable number.” It is an acknowledgement they can’t repeat the 2016 performance.

KCR has promised free drinking water supply up to 20,000 litres, waiver of motor tax of Rs 267 crore for 300,000 vehicles, and free power to barber shops, saloons, dhobi ghats and laundries in a bid to woo voters.

However, his reputation as a man of development has suffered a beating during the coronavirus pandemic. The alleged mishandling of the situation and inaccessibility of KCR fuelled a discussion in the state capital that the chief minister's administration was functioning like the Nizam.

The incessant rains and the resultant flash floods have also exposed KCR’s claims of building world-class infrastructure in the high tech city.

With the fortunes of the Congress witnessing a decline in the state post the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, TDP nearly wiped out in Telangana, and AIMIM’s appeal limited only to minority votes, BJP sees an opening in the southern state to emerge as the main opposition to KCR.

Generally, the municipal election is a hyper local election. However, instead of local issues like roads, drainage, development, water, traffic and corruption, national issues such as Hindustan-Pakistan, Rohingyas, and illegal occupants are being discussed and occupying media space.

How much of all this affects the voting decision remains to be seen? All eyes will be on 4 December for the results.

Amitabh Tiwari is a banker-turned-political strategist and commentator. Views are personal.