India’s an emerging drone giant, with 10% market share. Is this tech really a game changer?

The hype around drones’ stand-alone performance is perhaps overpitched.

A three-day military operation is too short to judge any weapon’s operational efficiency. Yet, the recent India–Pakistan clash was mostly about relative performance of different drones, missiles and air defence systems. While both India and Pakistan made liberal use of drones, India had an upper hand.

The use of drones was expected since elsewhere in contemporary warfare, Russia, Ukraine and Israel are already making good use of them. However, while India’s drone operations hogged the limelight, it is debatable if drones ‘on their own’ can emerge as the centerpiece of India’s future warfare strategy and facilitate competitive edge over rival(s).

Drones are not used in isolation

While non-state entities have been known to use drones on a large scale since long in one-sided attacks, their efficacy is limited. For full impact, drones need navigation support from the ground operators as well as real-time surveillance support from satellites. In the just concluded conflict, drones were actually part of a combination which included missiles, air defence system, fighter jets and even satellite-based real-time surveillance system, whose collectivity played a key role in providing teeth to India’s military operations.

Therefore, the hype around drones’ stand-alone performance is perhaps overpitched. Drones may have put up a stellar performance in the Russia–Ukraine War and Israel’s ‘mostly on-and-sometimes-off’ operations in Gaza, accounting for significant portions of the casualty. However, it would be a bit uncanny to place India’s ‘limited war with limited mandate’ in the same bracket as protracted battles like Russia – Ukraine War or even Israeli operations.

The many dimensions of military technology

Those who hypothesize that drones are an important transformative military technology, forget that the technology (itself) suffers from various anomalies.

First, the cheap cost and easy availability of drone technology have failed to bring ‘unmanned revolution in military affairs’. Contemporary warfare continues to be heavily dependent on technical manpower that includes navigation support for drones, force employment and strategic considerations. No military power can claim an edge over others through mass production and deployment of drones, or absence of the same with its rivals. Drones are ubiquitous items and easily available in the international market. When most countries have a sizeable chunk of drones in their kitty, they lose their ‘intrinsic value’.

Second, drones cannot operate on their own and have to be used with plenty of supplementary instrumentalities like robust air defence system, at least in the case of inter-state wars. This is still a costly system and not available with all countries. What made the day for India was its robust anti-drone air defence system (like the indigenous Akashteer), allowing precision-based monitoring and neutralisation of drone attacks from Pakistan. However, for many hapless countries bereft of a robust air defence system, vulnerability to drone attacks is always there.

Third, the US, the lead innovator in drone technology and its military usage in some or the other form since World War II, could not overcome the Afghanistan conundrum despite large-scale application of drones and the enemy, Taliban, bereft of any worthwhile air defence system. Perhaps that speaks why the American military does not position drones at the center of its military missions and uses them largely for ‘targeted killings’ of pre-identified terrorists.

Fourth, drone warfare is localised in nature. Very few category of drones have a range of 1,000 km and beyond. India’s drone strategy will stand a fair amount of success against Pakistan since the latter’s territorial expanse is moderate; most Pakistani strategic locations and targets are close to India Pakistan border; and most importantly, Pakistan’s air defence system is comparatively vulnerable. On the other hand, China has a continental territorial expanse; the strategic targets are deep inside China (beyond Tibet); China is the largest producer of drones in the world; and boasts of robust air defence system.

Drones are now just general purpose technology

Drones are just one aspect of the dynamic military-technical revolution that will not change military asymmetries as evident in the protracted Russia – Ukraine War, characterized by heavy usage of drones from both sides.

They have evolved in last five to seven decades and, therefore, do not bring that eureka moment or surprise factor associated with ‘lead military innovation’. Instead, they have long metamorphosed into a general purpose technology (GPT) and are in possession of all military powers worth any credentials. Even non-state entities like terrorist forces resort to large-scale drone usage since they are ubiquitous at dirt-cheap prices. We will need iterated evidence-based successes to sing paeans for drones. On the contrary, their disadvantages are being worked out by military powers. We now apprehend, for example, that these drones are also ‘floating ducks’ in air with slow speed that make them vulnerable to enemy offensives from ground and air.

Apart from some imported drones, it was India’s battery of home-grown defence drones that took on Pakistan in the three-day operation. For the record, India’s drone production turnover was pegged around $4.2 billion in 2025. This is approximately 10 per cent of global drone market. India already figures in the top ten countries, producing drones for military and civilian use.

The domestic military industrial complex is sensing an opportunity to boost drone production in the new atmospherics and coming days may see more defence start-ups entering the production business. Whether they would be able to induce an edge in India’s favour ‘on their own’ is debatable.

In contemporary warfare, where all kinds of arsenals are used depending upon the ground situation; drones alone cannot be the putative masters and take credit. They are, at best, enablers in the field. While air warfare (using drones etc.) clears the ground, they cannot be an alternate to ground combat. Existing literature and new research findings amply establish that the ‘so-called revolutionary effects of drones are premature and exaggerated’. Beyond ephemeral pleasures of recent drones’ success, India should research, produce and improve high-tech weapons and keep diversifying its arsenals for effective offensive and defensive capabilities.

(The author is in the Indian Defence Accounts Service. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.)