Independent Politicians: Heroes in local body elections but zeroes in general elections

Local factors and issues, local equations and relationships, and personality cult help Independents do well in lower tier local body polls.

The Uttar Pradesh urban local body election results reestablish the dominance of independents in lower tiers of governance. Independents captured more than half of the seats in municipal council and nagar panchayat member elections in the state. In a hyperlocal election, local patronage, relationships, and image of the candidate trump the prevalence of the party system that are visible in national or state elections.

A scrutiny of votes polled during assembly elections since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections reveals a broad pattern of consolidation of votes among major parties/contenders, and the squeezing out of marginal players and Independents.

In a research paper, Sacha Kapoor and Arvind Magesan show that a rise in the number of independents increases voter turnout and total vote share for independents, while reducing the vote share of the winner.

They play an important role in elections by increasing citizen knowledge about alternative policies and facilitating the selection of representatives who are more responsive to their constituents.

Three Clear Trends

Three trends are clearly visible as one analyses the role of independents in the Indian electoral system.

1. The proportion of seats won by Independents have drastically reduced over the years.

2. The number of Independents elected are far higher in local bodies than general elections (state as well as national).

3. In local body elections, Independents far outnumber the number of members elected on tickets of political parties (recognised or otherwise).

Dwindling Lok Sabha Numbers

The first Lok Sabha had 38 Independent MPs, the second 42, accounting for 10 percent of its strength. Since 1989, their tally has never reached double digits, currently less than 1 percent of Lok Sabha MPs are Independents. Their influence is also declining from 54 percent in 1952 to 16 percent in 2019. Influence here is defined as the number of seats where Independents finished 1st/2nd/3rd.

The decline in the number of Independent MPs is because they do not have the infrastructural advantage (party cadre/machinery) and money which party candidates have to fight an election. Many of them have been co-opted by political parties over the years.

The increase in security deposit by the Election Commission of India from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 25,000 for Lok Sabha elections has also been somewhat an impediment. In 2004 Lok Sabha elections, 48 percent of total candidates contesting were Independents, which dropped to 43 percent in 2019.

The recently concluded 2019 Lok Sabha elections saw an estimated expenditure of around Rs 55,000 crore. This translates to Rs. 100 crore per seat, Rs 6-7 crore per candidate, seven-nine times the official spend allowed (Rs 75-95 lakh). Such exorbitant sums are difficult for an Independent to cough up, and more so given the low probability of victory.

Over the years, Independents are also being put up by parties as dummy candidates to cut into votes of opponents, thus earning them the derisive tag of vote-cutters, further hampering their chances to win.

But Dominant In Local Bodies

In the recently concluded urban body polls in Uttar Pradesh, Independents bagged more than 55 percent of the total seats on offer. Their share of the seats increases as we move down from the highest tier to lowest tier elections. This trend is visible across most of the states.

In UP, Independents won 15 percent wards in municipal corporation vis-a-vis 67 percent seats in nagar panchayat elections. While they couldn’t win a single mayor post, they won 21 percent and 36 percent of President/
Chairman positions in municipal council and nagar panchayats.

On the contrary they failed to win a single seat in the 2019 general elections and 2022 state elections in Uttar Pradesh re-emphasising the dominance of the party system in such polls.

In local body polls, barring the mayor post, the number of voters are on an average between 1,000-5,000. This significantly reduces the number of votes one needs to manage to win the elections. Money and muscle power play a key role here and locally influential people with deep pockets are able to manage party cadre and leaders at these lower levels of governance.

Local factors and issues, local equations and relationships, patronage networks (caste, class, profession) and personality cult (image, reputation) help Independents do well in lower tier local body polls. But the lack of resources, prevalence of state and national issues, party system, lack of ideological alignment and a much higher voter base make it difficult for them to do well as one moves higher up in the governance ladder.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.