Imran Khan Versus The Rest: Pakistan’s institutions have no clue how to handle this dangerous demagogue

Pakistan's former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, along with his supporters walks as he leaves the district High Court in Lahore, Pakistan on February 20, 2023. (Source: UTERS/Mohsin Raza)

Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s cult has long declared that Imran is their redline and anyone who crosses it should be mindful of the consequences that will follow. But if the clashes outside Imran Khan’s Lahore house are anything to go by, it is Imran and his cult that might just have breached a redline of the Pakistani state.

Fight To The Finish?

Imran’s cult formed a human wall to protect their leader from the police which had come to arrest him. The cops were targeted, assaulted and even fire-bombed. It is almost as if Imran and his followers have declared war on the state of Pakistan and are waging a pitched battle against the state forces.

The situation has become a kind of do-or-die for both sides: if the government backs down, it will be a disastrous defeat for both the ruling coalition, the military and the Pakistani state because then Imran would become the state; if Imran backs down, it could well be end of the line for him – Imran is paranoid that he will be physically eliminated.

Even if that doesn’t happen, the state now has reason to book him for being an enemy of the state, defying the judiciary and lawful authority and of course sedition. The courts which have been very biased in Imran’s favour will find it difficult to give him relief because he has demonstrated that he will use street power to defy and sabotage the judicial process. In short, this entire fracas is now becoming something of a fight to the finish.

On Streets And Social Media

A few days back, Imran’s nephew had threatened a civil war if anything was to happen to his uncle and leader. He warned that Imran’s followers won’t care for any Haji or Hafiz (a reference to Army Chief Asim Munir who is a Hafiz-e-Quran). Using social media, the entire Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) cadre has been activated not just to prevent Imran’s arrest but also to demonstrate throughout Pakistan.

There are reports that a mob in Peshawar was heading in the direction of the Corps Commanders house. Similar reports came from some towns in Punjab where crowds were heading for the cantonments. Scenes of PTI mobs blocking roads in towns and cities across Pakistan are also pouring in.

Of course, it isn’t as if the entire country has risen in revolt. Far from it, only small but highly charged mobs have come out in a show of force. But the PTI has been able to exploit social media and some PTI supporting TV channels to amplify the protests and make them appear as if the entire country was in ferment and the masses were rising against the state in Imran’s cause.

Even so, if the situation in Lahore deteriorates – there is blood on the streets as a result of police action – then the political crisis in Pakistan could well become unmanageable for the civilian government, forcing the military to step in and end this latest charade of democracy.

That Imran is popular is undeniable. Asides of the cult he has cultivated, there is a lot of support he has gained from people who are reeling under the impact of the virtual economic collapse – businesses are shutting down, industry has come to a grinding halt, joblessness is growing, inflation has skyrocketed, fuel and power tariffs have gone through the roof.

According to most political pundits, if elections are held anytime in the next few months, Imran could sweep them. This is something the Pakistan Army is just not ready to accept.

Imran Threatens Pakistan

Imran who was created and foisted by the Army is now the biggest threat to the coherence and institutional integrity of the Army. He has divided the Army from within – many young officers, families of army personnel, and many veterans support him against the Army leadership. Worse, he has played politics between generals.

There is no love lost between the new Army chief and Imran. The top brass fears that if Imran returns to power, he will destroy the Army and reduce it into his personal ‘Tiger Force’, something the Army will never allow. Add to this his disastrous handling of the economy and foreign relations, and it is clear that he is just not acceptable.

Counter-intuitive though it may appear, Imran is today the biggest threat to democracy in Pakistan. His victory will not ensure civilian supremacy but raw, unbridled fascism in Pakistan. He is a vicious, vindictive and vacuous demagogue who will destroy whatever remains of Pakistan’s institutions. He will go after the opposition with a vengeance and he will undermine and subvert every single institution from the judiciary to the election commission to the bureaucracy and of course the Army. Simply put, he needs to be shut down.

No Easy Options

For now, the Army and the government are on the same page on Imran Khan. The Army is backing the government’s action against Imran – the Rangers, a paramilitary force officered by Pakistan Army, has stepped in to reinforce the police – but without getting directly involved. The effort is to fix Imran legally – over three dozen cases have been filed against him.

So far Imran has been treated with kid gloves by the judiciary and if the judges give him relief now, it will be a huge defeat for the Army and the government. This means that the judges will now have to fall in line. Some force will also have to be used to bottle up Imran’s supporters. But if all of this fails then Pakistan could descend into chaos.

On the other hand, even if Imran is put down, there is unlikely to be any stability in Pakistan. The economy is in a death spiral, the politics is broken and polarised beyond redemption, and terrorism is on the rise, and neither Imran, nor his bete noires have any idea on how to fix these existential crises.

Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.