Faced with urea and fertiliser shortages again, is it time to reimagine our agrarian system?

Several states are reporting panic buying, protests and huge shortage of urea.

It seems like the monsoon brings heavy rains but also a whole set of new problems. First the Trump tariff wars eating into farmers’ incomes, and second big problem - Urea shortages and price inflation which has created a panic along farmers and state governments’ alike.

Karnataka, Telangana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and many other states are reporting panic buying, protests and huge shortage of urea. When we look at the national stock of urea it’s dwindling. Last year August 2024 the urea stocks stood at 86.43 lakh tonnes versus 37.19 lakh tonnes in August 2025. The low stock reserves are naturally affecting the supply of urea to farmers and to co-operatives that are in urgent need of urea this Kharif season. There is fear growing among farmers in Haryana and other parts of the country, even for the coming Rabi sowing, whether enough urea will be left.

Adding fuel to the fire is the global surge in urea prices, from $400 per tonne in May 2025 to $530 per tonne currently. There are both domestic and international factors at play here.

Internationally, the Ukraine-Russia conflict is a major driver of skyrocketing fertiliser prices. Although India managed to secure some fertilisers from Canada, sanctions on Russian ships have further impacted prices and fertiliser imports from Belarus and Russia.

The Israel-Iran conflict has also contributed to the global rise in crude oil prices. As most fertilisers are produced using fossil fuels, this has had a direct impact on fertiliser prices worldwide. With production costs rising, fertiliser costs were bound to go up.

Domestically, strained relations with China have led to a ban on fertiliser imports from Chinese sources. Output shortfalls have also stemmed from shutdowns at Nagarjuna’s Kakinada plant and the Ramagundam unit in Telangana, due to technical glitches.

From an agronomic perspective, farmers themselves must shoulder some responsibility for the overuse of urea, which causes soil deterioration and an increased seasonal dependence on fertilisers. The soil, in many regions, is effectively ‘addicted’ to urea—crops cannot grow without its excessive use. Meanwhile, the taxpayer continues to bear the burden of rising fertiliser subsidy expenses each year.

To put it simply, on one hand, we face a shrinking global supply and price inflation, and on the other, the abusive overuse of urea. India's geopolitical relations are not helping the fertiliser supply situation either. While there are reports of China and Canada agreeing to resume fertiliser supplies, the real question is: can we afford to gamble our agriculture and food supply on foreign suppliers? Is there a need to implement a self-sufficient farming system?

A Way Out of Fossil Fuel Agriculture

We cannot follow Sri Lanka’s example and ban chemical fertilisers overnight, that would lead to disaster for our farmers and food system. Therefore, we must urgently secure alliances with major fossil fuel hubs such as Oman, Qatar, the UAE, and other Middle Eastern regions to ensure a constant supply of urea. If required, the Indian government can partner directly with the governments of these countries to set up India-specific supply plants. In exchange for fertilisers, India could offer to supply these countries with food and other agrarian products.

The government should also consider a 10-year deal with Russia for fertiliser supply, ideally trading in rupees and roubles. This would help safeguard national interests and reduce dependence on volatile international markets.

However, in the long term, we must develop a national policy aimed at shifting away from fossil fuel-based agriculture systems. The American-led Green Revolution is becoming increasingly redundant, with our farmers paying the price through excessive soil degradation, water exploitation, biodiversity loss, and an explosion of lifestyle diseases, exemplified by the ‘cancer trains’ from Punjab.

Current scientific data clearly show that fossil fuel agriculture is no longer viable, given our climate, water scarcity, biodiversity, and public health challenges. As a long-term solution, we must re-indigenise our agriculture. India needs to take a significant leap towards ecological farming in order to heal our soils, produce better nutrition, and free our agricultural systems from foreign control.

If we can shift 40–50% of our farms to function without chemical fertilisers, that would be enough to ease the burden on our economy and reduce foreign dependence. Neem-coated urea was a step in this direction, and the Prime Minister’s Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana is another. However, these initiatives need to be more aggressively pursued and better funded.

Each state should be made responsible, along with financial support, to convert 5% of their agricultural land into registered organic farms. The central government should provide income support during the three-year transition period and implement a special procurement policy for organic produce, backed by an MSP-like programme.

In addition, more research funding, both through public institutions and the private sector, should be allocated for ecological agriculture. Traditional techniques should be adapted and perfected for modern challenges. For instance, the CSIR decomposer enzyme is being used by farmers to decompose congress grass within 48 hours using jaggery, and then sprayed onto fields. This liquid promotes high vegetative growth in plants and has the potential to replace urea.

Local solutions must be recognised because India lacks fossil fuels. The more we depend on fossil fuel-based technologies, the more dependent we become. For thousands of years, from the writings of Ibn Battuta to the observations of Sir Albert Howard, India has been a pioneer in conservation-based agriculture. We need to rediscover our own wisdom, rooted in indigenous traditions, to safeguard our soils, economy, and food systems.