Congress needs to overcome these three myths

Over the last several years, the terms Congress and existential crisis appeared to be in a serious, virtually inseparable relationship. Something had to give.

Hurriedly, a Chintan Shivir was called for in the sizzling summer heat of Rajasthan after the disastrous electoral performance in the March assembly elections to five states. But after much hullabaloo, the grand-sounding Udaipur declaration made after the conclusion of the Chintan Shivir was more like old wine in an antique bottle.

Ideally the brainstorming session should have been held within one month of the May 2014 Lok Sabha rout, demonstrating a sense of urgency. That it was held many moons later is a manifestation of shining lethargy. In the interregnum, two biopsies, the AK Antony Committee Report and the Ashok Chavan Report on what ails the grand old party are being probably moth-eaten. But better late than never.

While there are some positive fundamental changes long overdue (One Family One Ticket, maximum five-year term in an organisational post, and more opportunities for the young), the 1,000 pound elephant in the drawing room remained unaddressed: the crisis of leadership.

Instead of focusing the precious hours in getting the house in order, we still heard the usual trope about why India looks down a rabbit hole, and some preachy pontifications on the way forward. Fair enough, but the time for moral grandstanding, and glossy incrementalism for the Congress is long over. The party needs to be spectacularly imaginative.

Udaipur lacked an inspirational call for change that could have become the zeitgeist for Congress workers all over India (only 400 were invited); the second freedom struggle, maybe?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can be defeated, but the Congress needs a new electoral business model. To start with, it must overcome these three myths that have made it into a dinosaur.

Myth One: The Congress is too big to become extinct

Statistics don’t lie. Two Lok Sabha routs, losing 40 of the last 49 assembly elections, tells a dismal tale. The party founded by AO Hume in 1985 needs to look at just the recent French presidential elections for a serious wake up call. The two titanic parties who repeatedly formed the government, the Socialists and the Republicans have nearly vanished amidst the Emmanuel Macron phenomenon (his party is just six years old). Marine Le Pen is the dominant narrative of the disgruntled Opposition.

Today, the Congress faces not just a formidable BJP but a resurgent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the national sweepstakes. The regional parties have virtually obliterated the Congress in several states such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Bihar, Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, among others.

If the Congress does not frantically reverse this snowballing decline, it is possible that the Trinamool Congress and AAP will have more Lok Sabha seats in 2024. The Congress could face a gradual decline before suddenly imploding.

Myth Two: The BJP will lose on anti-incumbency

The above has been Congress’ boogeyman, and reveals its myopic understanding of modern-day politics. First, the BJP is a monstrous, ruthless machine whose take-no-prisoners attitude permeates through its organisational core. It has overcome several headwinds with relentless aggressive campaigning. For example, on the recent WHO estimates of COVID-19 deaths in India being allegedly the world’s highest at 4.7 million people, it has bludgeoned the Congress instead, accusing it of being part of a Western global conspiracy to malign India.

Second, anti-incumbency works more in two-party Western democracies such as the United States or the United Kingdom, where there is always a visible alternative on the national mainstream. Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, George Bush Jr had great runs that were abruptly terminated. But in a multi-party, first past-the-post system, there are multiple beneficiaries of anti-incumbency that neutralises the losses of the front-runner. The Congress is waiting for Godot.

Myth Three: The Congress is India’s default operating system

In his Jaipur address in 2013, Rahul Gandhi made a forthright disclosure: “We don’t know how we win elections, but we do.” Rahul Gandhi had identified Congress’ bureaucratic, chaotic muddle, but he did not fix it. Just like how Rajiv Gandhi hit the nail on the head on the 15 percent of one rupee reaching the ultimate beneficiary in 1985, but did not rigorously execute a robust counterplan.

The Congress is a victim of the false belief that it is the natural party of governance. India is experimenting with different software. Winning elections, managing the political brand, and retaining public trust requires a solid operating plan in the 5G age. That is why Prashant Kishor is in the mix too.

The Congress needs both a new message and a new messenger. It faces a nuclear option. If despite the hype Udaipur fails to be a renewal moment, then the Congress will in the coming years become just a romantic nostalgia in India’s political history. The party of Mahatma Gandhi faces its moment of truth.

Sanjay Jha is former National Spokesperson of the Congress, and author of The Great Unravelling: India After 2014. Twitter: @JhaSanjay.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.